Thursday, January 5

Another day, another dollar

The past year has seen the gaining of plenty of dollars by your friendly neighbourhood banks and oil companies. Not so much for those who invest in them, however. The benchmark Dow-Jones average struggled and failed to break-even for the year. Meanwhile, the US dollar fell against the Euro, the Yen, the Canadian dollar and even the kwacha! On the Canadian side, the TSX average rose by about 25%, but, since the Canadian dollar strengthened ominously against our major trading partner, it looks like more difficult times lie ahead. And now, the American central bankers are suggesting that their program of increasing interest rates is about to end, so the US dollar is falling again.

And what do we do in the face of such realities? If I knew that, I'd write my book and retire!

On the basic level, it means our goods and services will be more expensive, so we'll have a harder time selling them to our American customers. Efforts will have to be increased to open other markets if Canadian businesses are going to thrive. Productivity of our workers will need to increase. The energy windfall will continue as oil prices continue above $50; world-wide demand for metals both base and precious should remain high. Both of these mean cash influx for a resource-based economy like ours. And banking remains a consistent way to make money! The Euro economies may strengthen, and should attract our attention and our business. The American economy should also benefit from their weakened dollar just as ours has in recent years. And our dollar should struggle a bit in line with our falling economic expectations which will ease some of our trading costs. Maybe it'll even drop back to around eighty-three cents US; that is apparently where our productivity level indicates it should be.

Well, that's what I'm thinking anyway!

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