Inflation? What inflation?

Another frosty week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We have hunkered down in our cosy house for the most part, and at least we have not been hit with further dumps of snow. Wendy continues to venture out from time to time for groceries, or to take care of further arrangements around her voluntary fiscal support of the Sounds of Superior Barbershop Chorus. It has been another challenging week in the markets as central banks have come in with their rate change proposals on Wednesday. So, investors made their guesses and tried to prepare for the details, and then when both BoC and the FED surprised them, they tried to examine the tea leaves to determine what they should do next! This led to continued volatility in the markets, and I am also trying to figure out what to do next. If you've read my investing story, you know my mantra, "Plan the trade; trade the plan." Loblaws provides an illustration of how that is "supposed" to work! As the years go by, I continue to make enhancements to the plan, and I am doing a better job of trading the plan.

As you can see in the chart, Loblaws came in last March as the crossover occurred (the green star). I was able to buy at $61.89. It topped out at year end at $105.15 for a gain of 69.9%. Of course, I did not know that was the top, but as it pulled back, it crossed over the buy/sell indicator (the red hexagon) and I sold at $98.15, for a gain of 58.6%. That is how my main plan works, but it doesn't often work so well! The pandemic continues to rage world-wide. Ontario is the best performing province as we have maintained restrictions, but we're still over 300 infections/million/day. Saskatchewan, refusing restrictions, is running over 1000 cases/million/day—sigh! In the world of sports, the Scotties has begun here, but they're playing it in the bubble, so I will be watching on TV. In hockey, the Oilers put together a couple more wins, and signed a free agent. They need a winning streak to get back in playoff contention, and they got another one tonight over the Habs! Leafs beat Detroit tonight, after Pens lost the Red Wings last night. #5-Jayhawks keep playing heart-aching games. They won earlier in the week in double overtime. Tonight, they got slaughtered by arch-rival Kentucky—ouch! 

Erica writes, "We are back in the land of snow and sub zero temperatures, but I am so glad we had a warm holiday. I’m not really a big fan of hot, but it was very energizing to get some sun. We will have to go back. Also, I figured out if Eric and I can manage $50,000 between the two of us, we can live in an all inclusive resort year round! I wonder how that compares to retirement homes. On our return trip, Eric was randomly selected to be retested. They tested him in Calgary on Monday night, and he got his negative results on Wednesday morning. So we jumped through all the hoops. And while it may have been tiring mid-trip, we are glad for the security measures."

Eric scored a new coat!

Kristian has begun semester finals; soon, it will be time for second semester. Saskatchewan is reconsidering how classes will run; we are left to find out what that means. Otherwise, winter has continued in Regina and they keep dealing with the snow and cold. Today, they enjoyed a visit to the cat cafe known as Excalipurr! 

Travis and Joanna continue to catch up on December orders. They hope the relaxation of restrictions due next week will mean they can get back to the rinks for some more hockey team photos. 

And that's it for this week. 

Brrr!

Another week of wintry weather has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. Temperatures regularly dropped into the -20s this week; we were hit with another couple dumps of snow, and the wind blew. We did not enjoy the weather this week! We were two days clearing the first deposit onto the lawn. Last night's was a mere skiff by comparison. Wendy has continued to spend many hours working on the books/records/authorizations for the Barbershop group. Occasionally, she declares that everything is in order, but that seems to turn into a self-curse, as she then discovers something else that is definitely not in order! The banks involved regularly blame it on the computers! The computers muse about who made the programs and who did the entries! The pandemic continues to flourish with two provinces (PEI, SK) reporting over 1000 cases/million each day. None of our provinces are in control, but the country seems to be flattening the curve, so we hope for better times. We have been hoping to travel to SK before Spring, but it's not looking possible at this time. The markets have remained troubled over inflation and interest rates. Monday was a great day, and I got back to quota for the month, but the four red days that followed depleted all of that and left me in the red. I've sold out of all three index funds, and another of my regular stocks as Loblaws fell out of favour. There will be a reaction next week as the central banks announce their new interest rate positions, but which way will they react?! In the world of sport, the Scotties have been confirmed to play within a bubble, so my volunteered services won't be needed, and I'll be watching on TV with the rest of the fans. In hockey, my Oilers continue to flounder, but tonight, they beat the Flames to break a seven-game losing streak. Penguins are flying (see what I did there?), and Leafs are fluttering between good games and lackadaisical ones. In basketball, #7-Jayhawks are playing well, and developing into an effective team. Today, they made a big comeback at K-State. They were down 16 at the half, and finally took the lead with 9 seconds left—whew! 

Erica writes, "Eric and I are enjoying this week south of both borders in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. We planned the trip last summer when it seemed the Delta variant would likely have run its course before Christmas, and we would be on the upswing. With Omicron, we debated whether or not to go. In the end, we decided to take the precautions available to us and take the break from winter. It has been a steady week of highs around 27° and lows of 18°. This is right at the upper end of what I find comfortable and has allowed us to be more active. We had a couple days of just relaxing at the pool, masked except when swimming. Masks are required everywhere, temperatures are taken at each entrance, and a squirt of cleaner is provided. On Wednesday night, we went on an excursion to Rhythms of the Night. The trip included a boat ride to an island which is set up as an outdoor restaurant (dinner was amazing) and outdoor theatre. The show rivalled Cirque de Soleil in production values, and the entire set up made us feel as if we had travelled to a magical land. We also had a tour of Puerto Vallarta and San Sebastián up in the mountains. We’ve learned about glass, coffee, tequila and silver production and a fair bit of local history—some of which might even be true! Our tour operator today was quite a story teller! We’ve also sampled chocolates, candies and enjoyed some of the local art. We have one more trip on Sunday to do some snorkelling, kayaking and paddle boarding. This will be a fear-facing opportunity for me, which I think is good to do. We will see how it goes. Saturday, we get our mandatory PCR test for our return on Monday. We are praying all goes well with that. One of our travel companions is a nurse and is regularly self-testing. She has remained negative while a large number of her colleagues back in PA have tested positive!"

Kristian briefly returned to school as their government thinks that reality is a socialist plot. As infections skyrocketed among both students and staff, he's now back to online learning as the semester comes to an end. The weather in Saskatchewan continues to be fierce with cold, snow and wind. 

Travis and Joanna keep busy. There are support programs available during these covid times, but they're doing too well to take advantage! It's a good thing. 

And that's enough for this week. 

It's Winter!

Observing Martin Luther King Day! 

Plenty of reason for more work on racial issues in our country, too! 

"Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. 

Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that." 

Another frosty week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We officially hit -30° this week, so I am confirming that we've had Winter, and we should now move along! We got back to single digits of frost today, so I'm encouraged to think we have moved past the nasty cold days. We added very little snow this week, and that was okay by me. The newer snowblower we bought last Fall has performed admirably, but there's no need to wear it out! We have enjoyed a rather mundane week, with only our usual chores and activities. Wendy brought out another puzzle, but hasn't opened it yet! She continues to have some activity nearly everyday tracking the financial aspects of the Sweet Adelines group. They also have regular zoom meetings, and a zoom practice session each week. Then, she does the shopping for us. I try to remain clear of stores at the best of times, and these days are far from the best of times. She did measure, cut, hem and hang a new set of curtains in the office—looks good. The pandemic is surging throughout the world. Our best province, New Brunswick, is putting up nearly 400 cases per day/million. Recall that in-control is defined as fewer than 100 cases per day/million. Our worst performing province, Manitoba, is at nearly 1400. And the bigger point in all of the data, is that no one seems at all interested in actually tracking how many are becoming infected! "Asymptomatic? Sorry, no test for you." Meanwhile, troubling signs are emerging that the Omicron variant is producing different, but still dangerous symptoms. It may be that reports of milder cases may relate most closely with the fact that so many folks are either vaccinated or have had covid before. Manitoba may be the first province to simply admit that everyone is going to get it! Herd immunity (if such exists), hopefully obtained mostly via vaccines, is their default position. The markets have been wild, and I've sold off another index stock, and am looking askance at a longtime contributor (Loblaws). It's up over 60% since last March, but these last two weeks have seen significant declines. Still, I had a great week; I have overcome the damages from last week and pushed into the green for the month.

Ready for Scotties

Today, I picked up my volunteer uniform for the Scotties. Plans continue to develop for that. It now appears it will operate within a bubble, so very few volunteers will be needed. I do not know if I will be assigned anything. Curling playdowns are struggling to even take place across the country. Locally, Krista McCarville was assigned to represent our region. Kevin Koe went through undefeated to win Alberta again. In hockey, my Oilers have had several games postponed due to covid infections. Pens continue to thrive, and now have Evgeni Malkin back from injury to bolster their ranks. Leafs have had their own covid issues, causing some postponements, and the sidelining of several players. It's a troubled season for sure. All three played tonight: Leafs and Pens won. Oilers, somehow, blew a 3-1 lead in the third period. In Basketball, my Jayhawks returned from a disappointing loss to Texas Tech to take a 1-point win over Iowa State—should not have been close! They were dropped to #9 in the rankings. Today, they blew out WV—good to see!

Erica writes, "The temperature has warmed up—though Eric protests that -10° isn’t warm! We will remedy that this coming week. On Monday, we fly to Puerto Vallarta for a week to thaw out and get some vitamin D." 

First Baptist Church in Prince Albert debuted their new logo, designed by Liam Bailey! Congratulations Liam! It looks good. His design incorporates the map of the city with the North Saskatchewan River flowing through it. 

Erin and Kristian have managed their usual program of work and school. They are much relieved to have a reliably performing vehicle this winter. Kristian is preparing for finals and the end of the semester. Extra-curricular activities have been cancelled for the time being. 

Trav & Joanna hosted a family supper on Sunday evening. That was delightful and delicious. We even got to open the Christmas Crackers that have been mislaid or forgotten on our earlier gatherings since Christmas! Andrew has decided to go back to school at Confederation College, so he has begun the application process there. Gemma is considering her post-graduate options, and is also preparing applications for various programs of study. Rhys is completing his engineering degree, and is looking for a job anywhere on the continent. All the young folks are looking to make changes. Trav & Joanna continue to have some Puckshots work to clean up, and are still getting some contracts for the Bucket Decals side of the business. 

And that's about it for this week. 

Welcome to 2022!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We've had some colder weather this week, but nothing like they've experienced in western Canada, and we're back to single digits of frost here on the weekend. We've had a couple more dumps of snow; that keeps us occupied clearing the driveway. Wendy has completed puzzle #2. This one had 1002 pieces!

2 extra pieces from some puzzle!

We got good news from Regina as Dad was released from Wascana to return home. He is receiving Home Care morning and evening which provides a good service and some relief for David. The markets resumed with the Santa Claus rally on Monday and Tuesday, but then the FED hit! The minutes from the December meeting were wildly out of touch with the change in reality since then, but investors simply took them at their hawkish word, and started selling! And they sold for the rest of the week. So, it was a very bad start to the new year for me, and I even had to sell my Nasdaq100 index fund. At least this gives me the opportunity to reconsider my plans, and it gives you an opportunity to check my plans and give me your feedback and advice! Thanks! I got some bloodwork done this week, and will look forward to getting the results concerning my PSA in due course. I've been following the curling playdowns in SK, AB and BC. My guy, Koe, is through to the final in Alberta. Amber Holland is having a good week in Sask, and is in the semi-final tomorrow. In the NHL, we continue to get games cancelled by covid, and many other games where the play is very much affected by the loss of players to covid. My Oilers are doing very poorly, and are at risk of not making the playoffs at all. Pens put up a ten-game win streak that ended today. They have themselves back in playoff consideration. Leafs have maintained a high success rate and are near the top of the league. #6-KU has begun conference play in Basketball. I even got to see the game today at Texas Tech! But the game itself was a bummer—bye-bye #6! Rock Chalk Jayhawks! 

Erica writes, "Eric and I are back to work. Liam is still at home, so we enjoyed a few more days of his cooking expertise. On Friday, Eric put a chicken in the roaster with salt, pepper and sage, and asked Liam to put it in the oven. Liam spatchcocked the chicken, separated the skin from the chicken, and basted it with herbed butter—so fancy! Haaken got his new computer this week and he was very excited, or as Andrew said, he might have smiled. Liam heads back early next week. It has been terribly cold. Last weekend, we had long power outage. Fortunately, the power returned before the temperature got dangerously low in the house. It has us thinking about alternative heat sources, and garages, and under ground parking. Speaking of which, we have underground parking at my office. I don’t have a pass yet, but was able to use it after hours when another person was away—it gave our poor car a break! We are looking forward to warmer days. Eric got a jury summons today!"

Erin and Kristian have returned to more normal schedules, but the weather is interfering. One morning was so cold the buses were cancelled, so Erin took Kristian to school on her way to work. Friday, another nasty day, they just decided to stay home and avoid the weather! They also took advantage early in the week to visit Papa, and deliver the Christmas goodies to 55 Laird. 

Travis and Joanna have had business cut back due to the new covid restrictions in Ontario. All minor games are off for the next while at least. Maybe the season will resume later if we can slow down this wave of infections. At least they got a lot of photos taken before the pause. 

And that's about it for this week. 

Happy New Year!

Another week, another year has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. Thankfully, today finds us in good health, peace and contentment.

Wendy's done Puzzle One

I have little time for New Year's celebrations. If they did it at a Solstice or an Equinox, I'd give it more consideration, but this is just an artificial designation. There are some aspects of our lives that are impacted by the turning of the year, so I do take notice of those. As I do each year, and on occasion, much more often, I review how I'm doing on my investment project. This year, I've chosen to do a write up of my thirteen years in the markets, and attempt to describe my latest permutation of my investment strategies. I won't bother you all with the details, but if you wish to check it out, it's on my blog. Read at your own risk! We are long since retired, and busier than ever! The pandemic has interfered markedly with our plans and activities. We long for the time when we can travel freely, and visit our loved ones around the world. We also have a few adventures on our Bucket List, so, we hope for a time when we can pursue more of those. But, for now, the pandemic rages stronger than ever with the Omicron variant building case numbers higher than ever before. It must be observed that the count of virus infections has always been lower than the reality, but it is even more true during this wave. Omicron appears to be producing much milder symptoms, and with its surge, many jurisdictions are even refusing to test or count low-symptom victims. Still we find all USA states and all provinces reporting out-of-control infection rates. Recall that 100 infections per million is considered the control limit—there are 17 states, and 1 province reporting (emphasis on reporting) over 1000 infections per million! There are 44 states and 6 provinces reporting over 500 infections per million! It is way out of control! The potential candle in this darkness is the lower hospitalization rates for Omicron. There is much discussion over why this may be happening, and until a conclusion is determined, we remain in suspense, but hopeful. We got a major snowstorm last weekend, and finally cleared the driveway on Tuesday. It was a big job! Then, we got a bit more snow on Wednesday, but that didn't add up to much. We only had three days of market action this week due to the holidays, but we managed to close the year with a gain, and achieve our yearly quota for the first time in five years—thanks, uncle Joe! The hockey season has been severely impacted by the latest pandemic surge—many games have been postponed. The highly anticipated participation of the NHL players at the Olympics has been cancelled. The Junior hockey World Championship was cancelled after the first few games! Many provincial curling championships are impacted as well. I remain hopeful for the Scotties scheduled for the end of the month here in Thunder Bay, but that is by no means assured. The Bowl season continues in football. My Sooners won the Alamo Bowl comfortably. The Cowboys won the Fiesta Bowl today with a big second half comeback. The Longhorns did not qualify for a bowl game this year. In the NHL, my Oilers continue to falter, but remain in playoff contention. They've lost the last two games in OT. The Pens and Leafs have suffered many players lost to virus protocol, but are getting them back now. Jayhawks continue to rack up the wins, but they are not on TV up here very often. 

The Baileys passed a frigid holiday season in Prince Albert, but they did get out for a few celebrations with their friends. They enjoyed having Liam home, and extend warm thoughts and prayers for Haaken and Greg in Victoria and Kenora, respectively. 

Erin and Kristian are likewise hunkered down in frigid Regina as the cold snap for western Canada has been pronounced. They got in some time with Shawn, Astrid and Liam. Erin also had some days of work this week. Kristian's return to classes is a bit in doubt; we wait to hear of the plans for that. 

Travis and Joanna have remained busy catching up on all the photo sessions they got in before Christmas. With pandemic protocols it is questionable whether they will have more team photo sessions. We were able to enjoy some time with them over the break, including Christmas Turkey Dinner, and New Year Chinese Supper tonight with the whole family. 

And that's enough for this week!