Economics 102

Happy New Year everyone! The year 2009 has ended, and while that date is an artificial boundary, it gives a holiday (and a pause) to review, reconsider and plan. It was a momentous year for us financially as, with the completion of my latest assignment, we have decided that my work should be the management of our investments. So, while I do that, I am also blogging the details. In education (where every common thing has to have a special name!) we call this metacognition! Enjoy!

I am calling this Economics 102 because I took Economics 100 in my first year of university, and Economics 101 is a well-used metaphor already.

I started my investment training and practice on March 9th. My first buys were on March 10th. Those who follow the TSX closely recognize those dates. They marked the depths of the most recent market crash. Since then we have enjoyed one of the biggest market surges since the Great Depression. My instructors lamented over the experience of our group as being so far from reality that we might not really be learning as we should. It was hard not to make money during the part of the year from March 10th to December 31st as the TSX rose from 7,567 to 11,746. So, I have determined to assess my success in the light of the TSX surge.

The first decade of this century is being well-described as a lost decade economically. This is certainly true in the US (Thanks there, Dubya!), but not so much in Canada. In the US, the SP500 dropped 24.1% during the decade (Imagine the additional pain if not for Obama's 23.4% gain this year!) The TSX rose almost 40% during the decade, but 30.7% took place this year, and even with that, an annualized rate of about 4% ranks pretty poorly against the previous two decades. Both countries have now pulled out the Bush Recession, and both of our main market indices moved into official bull territory in June, however, there are plenty of worrisome and difficult economic clouds still roiling through. Our economic health is so tightly tied to the US, that their continuing economic malaise is a big concern. Thoughtful observers see the current recovery as artificially based on the Obama stimulus spending and worry over the future. While he has been able to turn the TARP funding into a profitable investment for the US taxpayers, I do not see any prospects of an early repayment of the stimulus investment.

With that in the background I turn to the micro-economic picture of my own finances. My first simulated trading experience ran until July 17th. During that time, I achieved a profit of 43.7% while the TSX gained about 37% (My professional advisers gained 12.6%). The second phase ran until September 24th where I gained 19.1%, and the TSX rose 8.8% (My professional advisers gained 1.4%). The final phase (where I was actually investing money) completed the year; I gained 4.9% while the TSX rose 4.1% (My professional advisers lost 1.3%).

So, there's the assessment, now to consider the evaluation! The investment plan we are learning certainly allowed us to make great gains and surpass the markets (and some professional advisers) widely during the early trials, but not so much during the final phase. It is a concern that the final phase was when I was actually using my own money! Do I get too emotionally attached to the business? The final phase translates into an annual gain of about 20% which is certainly enough to support us, but not in line with the 30% we've been trained to expect. Therefore, while the effort will continue, I will also be reviewing my strategies and techniques as I try to improve. Travis has revised his working conditions so as to be more available to consult and support the investment program. We hope (and plan) for good economic results in 2010.