Why the Orange Tariffs

With thanks to Paul Krugman, Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics

Trade policy mavens sometimes use numeric shorthand that refers to relevant parts of the Trade Act of 1974, which spells out situations in which the president has the right to impose tariffs. There’s Section 201, giving temporary relief to an industry that is being hurt by an import surge. There’s Section 232, protecting an industry vital to national security. There’s Section 301, responding to subsidies or other practices that give foreign producers an unfair advantage. The tariffs Donald Trump just imposed on Canada and Mexico—nations with whom he himself signed a free trade agreement—don’t fit any of these categories. Maybe they’re Section 000, meaning that the president has simply lost his mind. Or maybe they’re Section 666: he’s just evil.

The newspapers this morning all contain analysis pieces trying to explain why Trump is imposing 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. You can see the writers struggling, because this is a profoundly self-destructive move—it will impose huge, possibly devastating costs on U.S. manufacturing, while significantly raising the cost of living—without any visible justification. Yet the conventions of mainstream journalism make it hard to say directly that the president’s actions are just vindictive and senseless. To its credit, the New York Times analysis comes closest, acknowledging that for some reason Trump personally loathes Canada, a nation most of the world stereotypes as “nice.” Obviously, not every Canadian is a nice person. But Canadians are relatively courteous on average, and the country’s social and economic policies are relatively decent by international standards. And it seems clear to me that Trump hates them for their decency.

To be fair, there are some efforts to explain what’s happening that go beyond Trump’s personal pathology. Some Canadians think Trump covets their mineral wealth. And there’s always the possibility that Trump knows how big Canada looks on standard maps, unaware both of the way that its land area is exaggerated by the Mercator projection and the fact that much of it is tundra, and thinks, “Real estate!”

Trump also goes on about Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, which he keeps saying is $200 billion a year—it’s actually less than a third that size. And nobody has offered a coherent justification for his claim that when Canada sells us cheap oil and electricity, we are somehow subsidizing them. In any case, efforts to find some kind of economic justification for Trump’s Canada-hatred have the feeling of desperate efforts to avoid the obvious. Canada is a pretty decent place, as nations go. And Trump, whom nobody would describe as a decent person, dislikes and maybe even fears people who are. I mean, look at the people Trump has chosen to play prominent roles in his administration. I guess if you search hard enough you can find officials without a sex scandal, a financial scandal, a history of anti-semitism or racism, or a record of substance abuse in a senior position. But it isn’t easy. It really looks as if being vile is a fundamental job qualification.

And so we’re having a trade war. Trump appears to believe that we don’t need anything from Canada. Automobile manufacturers who rely on Canadian parts, Midwestern oil refineries that rely on Canadian oil, builders who rely on Canadian lumber, households that rely on Canadian hydropower for their electricity will soon learn otherwise. Trump may imagine that he can bully Canada into submission. But he can’t; Canadians of all political persuasions are furious. Doug Ford, the conservative premier of Ontario, has the right attitude: he has threatened to cut off U.S. electricity “with a smile on my face.” And remember that Canada can’t concede to U.S. demands, even if it were in a mood to do so (which it very much isn’t), because there aren’t any coherent U.S. demands; Canada has done nothing wrong!

So I don’t know how this ends. But U.S. voters will soon be feeling real pain, and I very much doubt that it will end in a Trump victory.

Betrayal

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my home town. The weather continues quite mild, but we got another dump of snow on Thursday, so we were digging out yesterday. Wendy is making good progress on her accounting contract—she's now working on the September records. She also has her Sweet Adelines treasurer work and singing. We both had choir on Thursday morning, and then served at Urban Abbey for their lunch offering for homeless folks. My main hockey team, the Oilers were on a losing streak—reaching five games—but finally won tonight! Penguins are also not winning much, but at least the Leafs are performing well. Curling remains my main sporting preoccupation again this week. The Scotties ended on Sunday, with the prohibitive favourite, Homan, beating my gal, Einarson, in the final. Homan will now represent us at the World Championships in South Korea. The Brier got underway yesterday in Kelowna and my usual favourite is there, #9-Koe. As you can tell from the ranking he's not having a great season. The favourites are #1-Dunstone, #2-Jacobs, #3-McEwen, #4-Gushue. I expect them to all make the playoffs, and I'm just hoping Koe can join them. The unranked Jayhawks are playing out the string on the regular season and hoping to get it together for the playoffs and a decent performance in March Madness. It has been a heart-wrenching month watching Trump destroy most of what USA has stood for over the years. He keeps breaking laws, treaties and the norms of morality. There is a very long list of items; just a few examples: we see food rotting in warehouses that should be feeding African children. That same food was provided under contract by farmers who are seeing those contracts broken and their livelihood threatened. The Canada/Mexico/USA trade treaty is in tatters as Trump threatens illegal tariffs against the very trade agreement he negotiated and described as the greatest trade treaty ever! In 1994, the USA, UK and Russia signed a treaty to respect the borders of Ukraine. Russia broke that ten years ago, and the USA led a world-wide response to punish them for it, but now Trump is trying to back out of that treaty. This week was the low-point of USA performance in foreign affairs as he brought Zelenskyy into the Oval Office, invited the Russian media in to document his brutalizing of his treaty partner on behalf of Putin. I won't bother to describe his economic malfeasance; it is enough to say that in the USA inflation is higher, employment is lower, and GDP is now projected to fall into recession. 

Erica writes, "On Sunday, Tina and I took a series of trains and buses to her friend’s place just outside of Essen. We enjoyed meeting new old friends over traditional German food and a mix of poor German, better English and hand signs. We stayed overnight and they were kind enough to drive us to Dusseldorf where we had a very early flight on Tuesday. I took advantage of the accessibility support for post surgery, so I didn’t have to stand in long lines. We landed in Saskatoon on Tuesday night where Guido and Eric brought us back to our homes! The evenings since then, I have been sleeping as I continue to heal. But Friday was filled with fun as our band had a gig at the local Army and Navy. Eric has no news, but he was super helpful in getting me home, making me rest and taking care of me at the gig."

Kristian continues to look forward to returning to school in the Fall. He has had no progress on finding work. He also continues with his electrical training as he has another pot light failing downstairs. We may attack that problem this weekend. Erin is making good progress at work, although she brought the laptop home this weekend, so that's not ideal!! Anyway, they have completed the search and offered the accounting clerk job, so that should provide a lot of relief for her. We'll see how that turns out. 

Travis and Joanna continue to be very busy both with the business and with Joanna's work. They keep having photoshoots while continuing to expect it to end soon as hockey seasons come to an end. As a result, we haven't been having our games nights so often, but they do have us over for supper and we love that! 

And that's enough for this week. 

Trumped

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned much more comfortable with mild temperatures and slushy streets. I've spent most of the week with Scotties Curling. I've been working a shift most days managing their time clocks. No teams have got really close to running out of time on my watch, but some have been under one minute. The competition has been fun to watch and my two picks have risen to the top and finally met in the 1-2 game tonight. So, #1-Homan advanced to the final set for tomorrow evening, while #2-Einarson will play #4-Black in the semi-final tomorrow afternoon, with the winner (I predict Einarson) advancing to play Homan again! The world of hockey took time off for the Four Nations Tournament, and we were delighted to prevail with an OT goal to beat the USA in the final. My teams were all back in regular season action today, but only the Leafs managed a win, while Oilers and Pens were blasted! In Basketball, my #23-Jayhawks (will they even have a ranking next week?) continue to underperform as they were blown out early in the week, before rebounding for a blowout win of their own, today. Preseason Baseball has begun—all teams are World Series prospects at this time of the year. Wendy has been busy with her choirs—I missed choir this week for Scotties work. She is progressing on her annual accounting project—I think she's working on May business records already. World affairs are not going well. His Orangeness gives every evidence of being an agent of Russia—espousing all of their positions and priorities. He has sidelined Ukraine to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine's fate—despicable! He whines about breaking up with NATO (Putin's fevered dream!), and picks fights with all the former allies, most notably Canada, but also Europe. It's a very disquieting situation for us. Breaking his own free trade agreement, he threatens tariffs against both Mexico and us. He claims to not understand how tariffs work, nor even how balance of trade works. It leaves the markets rattled, and they are all down since he took over. Meanwhile, in the USA, employment is falling and inflation is rising. What will it take to get folks' attention?! It is encouraging to see some protests and boycotts, but we will need much more before the Republicans regain their courage and put a stop to him. 

Yeah, me neither, Mr. Rather.

Erica writes, "Eric has been managing at home. He’s taken the opportunity to get ahead on his hockey games. Erica was released from hospital on Monday and has been resting at the Air BnB and going for a few walks to regain her strength. She had a follow up appointment on Friday and the doctor was pleased with the healing so far. They did an ultrasound to check for hematoma and seroma on the arms and they look pretty good. He was also encouraged by the walking and the fact that I got dizzy one day after 2 km was not a concern to him. He said it’s part of the two steps forward one step back healing process."

Beautiful, with Kristian's help!

Erin and Kristian have survived the deep freeze in Regina where temperatures have challenged -40° this week, before moderating for the weekend. They are also into melting weather now—quite a relief! Erin got through her busy time at work, so that's a relief. She worked on her Lego project, had some struggles, but was fortunate to have some professional assistance! Erin is happy to see the return of baseball and her beloved Blue Jays. 

Joanna is away this weekend, visiting her sister and family, and working on her mother's house. They are trying to go through all the stuff, and get it ready to sell. Trav is batching at home with the boys and Marigold. He and Marigold came over for supper tonight which included us watching the Penguins game and Marigold cleaning up Kali's food! 

And that's about it for this week. 

Lost!

Have we lost our friend?

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather ran cold, even very cold during the first part of the week, but has returned to more comfortable temperatures for the start of the Scotties! I had a training session Thursday evening, and began my officiating assignment Friday evening—I'm here all next week! Since I'm working in the event, I will be quietly cheering for hometown favourite #9-McCarville, and my usual favourite, #2-Einarson, but still expecting the powerhouse #1-Homan team to be there at the end. My #17-Jayhawks continue an up and down season and slide another notch in the rankings. They split their games again this week, but show flashes of potential! C'mon Jayhawks!  In hockey, the big event is the Four Nations Face-off. The games have been very entertaining so far, with the big game tonight as the traditional rivalry match between Canada and USA which they won 3-1. Sadly, that friendship is in tatters as the USA has launched aggression against us, vowing to destroy our country and make us a part of their country. This is a devastating turn of events, and our only hope is that some will remember our longstanding allegiance and friendship and change the determined course that Trump is taking. Otherwise, he says he will break us economically and force us to submit to USA rule. We have long looked upon the USA like a big brother, and we can hardly feature this situation. Their economy is already suffering under the new administration, so clearly there is a lot he can do if he decides to do so. He campaigned with promises of creating jobs and killing inflation, but so far it's the opposite as job creation lags and inflation jumps higher again. The markets are also suffering, and I need that to change. Surely the corporate forces will not allow this to continue. 

Erica is off on a medical trip to Germany. On Tuesday she wrote, "Later today, I will begin my journey to Germany with my handy nurse, Tina Stenske. However, I almost wasn't able to go. Last night, as I was packing, I discovered that my passport was not where I thought it was. Eric and I started looking through all the usual places... then the not usually places... then boxes and bags of stuff that got moved around in our rearranging of the main floor for Christmas. I went through all my drawers, pulling out, refolding and putting clothing back in place just in case it had slipped into a drawer. Eric went out and looked through the car, in the - 30 weather. Several times we said prayers that God would show us where the passport was hiding. Around 11 pm, we decided to take a trip to my office. I had booked the tickets on October 22, a Tuesday, and I was pretty sure that was at the office. Usually you have to enter the passport number when you book an international flight, as was evidenced by the fact that I had asked Tina to send me her info at that time. So we searched my office—no luck. But since we were parked in my office's underground parking, we decided to give the car a better look through than we had done before. I pulled the passenger seat all the way forward, and there it was—under the seat. Eric and I had both pulled out stuff from under the seat, but it wasn't until we pulled the seat forward and had decent lighting, that we could see it. We thanked God, breathed a sigh of relief and returned home!" She flew through London to Bonn with her friend and nurse, Tina. She had her surgery on Friday, and has begun the process of recovery. She expects to stay another week there. 

Erin celebrated the victory by her chosen Eagles as Super Bowl Champs. She writes, "I closed the year on Wednesday :) Still have reports to do, but the real important stuff is done. No more entries allowed. Then I finished January financial statements yesterday. It’s been a really good week! Over 100 applications came in for my accounting clerk position. Interviews start Tuesday. I’m excited to meet these people, actually. I was a bit nervous at first… thinking about being on this side of hiring and how to choose. One of them will be super close with me for the next few years. Now I’m not so nervous because I feel that I will know. Weather here sucks. It’s cold and I haven’t seen a break in the forecast. Time to go to the beach! But more realistically a couple months from now once everything at work is settled. And by then it might be nice enough to pretend I’m at the beach when sitting the backyard. Kristian was waiting for me to get home a couple days ago so he could take the car to Walmart. That’s pretty usual. It’s either Walmart, GameStop, or Tim Hortons, or all three. But this time he only went to Walmart and came home with a Lego set for me. And a bag of chips. And said happy Valentine’s Day. Really nice surprise. Sweet boy. He says his friend Jeff told him Valentine’s Day was coming. Melted my heart a bit."

Lego for Mom!

Travis & Joanna hosted us for pizza supper and the Super Bowl on Sunday. The game didn't go my way, and didn't even stay close, so by the second half we weren't paying much attention. We did have a good meal and visit while we enjoyed playing with the dogs. Travis is still very busy with PuckShots, and Joanna keeps busy at her work also. 

And that's about it for this week. 

Alas!

 Guest Post, by a friend from the USA, Michael James

OK, HELLO WORLD...

For most of my adult life, I worked as a journalist in this country and credibly, factually, told the public thousands of stories at the Detroit News, New York Daily News and as head writer for a TV show on ESPN. None of the stories I have ever written is more important than the one I am writing now.

If you will indulge me a lack of brevity this one time, I will explain.

It begins with the three times I realized that the safety and security we so prize here in the United States of America is an illusion. It's not and never was true. It doesn't exist. We only believed it did.

The first time I realized it was in the aftermath of 9/11. After I witnessed the World Trade Center towers crumble before my eyes little more than a mile from my New York City apartment, authorities posted police with automatic weapons and huge American flags at the entrance to every bridge and tunnel in the city.

We felt safe seeing those images, but each time I ventured through those tunnels and over those bridges, I had a question:

"What's stopping that truck in front of me from being laden down with fertilizer and explosives? Who knows what's in the trunk of every car in front and back of me?"

We weren't safe at all. Terrorists just didn't decide to blow us all to hell.

The second time I realized there is no such thing as safety and security came when Donald Trump promised building a wall at the Southern border to keep illegals out.

I thought, "Mexicans are renowned for building tunnels from Mexico directly to homes on the US side in Texas and California to smuggle in people and drugs. How can a wall prevent that?"

A wall could not make us safe at all. We only believed it could.

The third time I realized safety and security is an illusion was on January 6th, 2021, when Donald Trump's MAGA supporters overran the United States Capitol—the seat of power of the US government—injuring law enforcement officers and defacing the offices of cowering, terrified duly elected lawmakers.

The ease with which they penetrated our most sacred symbols of the rule of law and order in America showed me that if this could be done by only a few thousand mostly-unarmed citizens, there really is no such thing as safety and security in this country.

We only believed there was.

The final time I realized there is no safety and security in the United States of America has come in the last three weeks, or rather, since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Under the guise of weeding out corruption and with South African-born Elon Musk as the tip of the spear, Donald Trump and his Republican confederates have turned every facet of American government upside down, installed inexperienced and unqualified loyalists in positions of power in every sector of government and thrown thousands of hard-working Americans—many of whom voted for him—out into the streets.

While stunned, outnumbered Democrats were frozen to inaction, Trump, through executive order, made laws, changed laws and ignored orders from courts to stop in his tracks.

While those of us who opposed him screamed that his actions and those of Elon Musk were tantamount to creating a fascist government and a dictatorship, we were only partially right.

See, people, Trump's dictatorship has already begun. It is HERE. It is NOW.

For those who don't believe this is true, what we all missed while focusing on the flood of executive orders and bizarre musings of taking over the Gaza Strip, annexing Canada as the 51st state against their will, purchasing Greenland to rename it Red, White and Blueland and taking over the Panama Canal is this:

Trump was merely testing the waters to see how much power and authority he truly had. The final step in his plan will be to ignore any and all court challenges aimed at stopping him.

What should be clear to you now is that there was really only one barrier to Donald Trump taking over this country and remaking it in his image:

The fact that the only thing that has kept our democracy in place since it was written in 1787 is a piece of paper called the U.S. constitution.

That constitution only works if our politicians RESPECT the power within, the rule of law.

Donald Trump clearly does not respect the constitution as have all other United States presidents before him.

Worse, without respect for the constitution and our laws, THERE IS NO AUTHORITY LEFT TO STOP HIM.

There is no police force who can reign Trump in.

There is no military to reign Trump in.

There are no lawmakers or judges to reign Trump in.

And soon, as Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayer declared recently during a speech at Miami Dade College, Donald Trump will refuse to comply with all orders of the court—and his takeover will be complete—for there is no authority remaining to police him.

Like Sotomayer, the American Bar Association just released a statement declaring that, “Trump is not following the rule of law.”

Now, the reason why the ABA sounds like a kid screaming, “Charlie hit me!” is because they’ve reached the conclusion that there is nothing they can do about Trump not following the rule of law. This has never happened before in the history of this country, but it IS happening now.

Hey, America, hey World, you can call it a monarchy, or fascism or a totalitarian government or a dictatorship, but whatever you call it, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are the law of the land now.

Don't believe me?

The 1,500 January 6th rioters who were tried and convicted in federal courts?

Trump freed them. On Day 1.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who was brought up on corruption charges after a decade-long investigation?

He cozied up to Trump, who ordered his Department of Justice to drop the charges.

If that's not enough, I think Donald Trump has one more trick up his sleeve, as I predict he is being lobbied at this very moment to grant clemency to an old friend who has been accused of pedophilia, drugging and raping male and female victims, physically assaulting others and possibly sanctioning numerous murders over the past 30 years.

So what, pray tell, will you say when Donald Trump pardons Sean Diddy Combs?

The lyrics to that song you sang in grade school have changed, folks:

This land is NOT your land.

This land is NOT my land.

NOT from California.

NOT to the New York Islands.

NOT from the Redwood Forest

NOR to the Gulf of America waters

This land belongs to Trump and E.

In less than a month back in office, all of the checks and balances have been removed. Republicans control the house and the senate. Every cabinet pick Trump proposes will be confirmed. No decision he makes, whether it's instructing the Treasury Department to stop making the penny or bringing back the plastic straw, is being denied.

While his supporters cheer his every move, they have yet to see the cost cuts Elon Musk and his team of hackers make under cover of darkness are hurting American farmers, American workers and those in the poorest red states in the country who voted for him.

For them, and us, it's already too late to realize it's too late.

If you saw Musk recently in the oval office with his young son holding court while Trump sat idly by, you should have realized the richest man in the world controls the supposed most powerful man in the world.

Only Elon Musk is holding Elon Musk accountable and Trump—who is likely paying Musk back for whatever he did to help him take the 2024 election—is allowing it to happen.

As you read these words, it is likely that Elon Musk has already had his hackers place back doors into every major computer system across the US government, which gives him the power to shut down any program he chooses at any time on an app while sitting in the driver's seat of his Tesla.

For those in the back or in the nosebleed section or under a rock, let me say it again:

Elon Musk and Donald Trump are the law of the land. Today. Right now.

The United States of America is no longer a democracy. We are now a dictatorship.

In closing, let me say that I don't believe in presenting problems without offering solutions. There IS something we can do to fight this takeover and resist this bloodless coup that has stripped away the sense of freedom we have known all of our lives—but it will require of us a resolve and action most of us have never known or shown.

It will require us to unite, fight, stand up, risk our lives and our liberty—because one thing dictators have never fully understood is that THE PEOPLE truly are the power.

Think of it this way: if we don't want the price of an automobile in America to be $50,000, well, if nobody buys those cars, there won't be a $50,000 car in America.

With that in mind, should Elon Musk and Donald Trump try to dump hundreds of thousands of federal employees out into the streets, simply refuse to leave. If forced from your offices, show up to work en masse the next day—and every day after—and make sure NOBODY goes into those offices.

If Trump's new Department of Defense head Pete Hegseth makes a demand of the 3.5 million workers he now oversees, what can he possibly do if they disobey in the name of American democracy?

The same goes for new national security director Tulsi Gabbard, who has never worked in security or run a department of ANY kind. The same goes for new secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, new Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. or any other Trump appointee.

None of these figureheads—not even Trump himself—can do anything without our complicity.

Lastly, this battle is only just beginning. You must protect your physical and mental well-being.

You don't have the time or energy to fight meaningless squabbles on social media against Trump's MAGA sycophants who believe every narrative they sell.

No matter if they are friends or family or casual acquaintances on social media, SILENCE THEIR VOICES and influence. Block, snooze, delete or ignore them.

For me, the purge begins TODAY! I’d love to tell the people going away that it isn’t personal, but their blind belief system is a direct threat to me, my friends, family, neighbors, fellow Americans, Canadians, Palestinians, and, well, you get the picture.

Trust what your eyes and ears are telling you. Hope that they will catch up and join our fight against this power virus threatening our country and the world.

Lastly, remember the words of philosopher Bertrand Russell, who said roughly this of how fascism begins: "First they fascinate the fools. Then they muzzle the intelligent."

If you've gotten this far, it's because you're not a fool.

We got here because all of our lives we believed in that concept devised by our founding fathers of "We The People."

Well, the only way out from under the megalomania of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and their collaborators is to make every day January 6th.

If you feel so moved, please share my post. If not, please act in some way. We need all hands on deck.

If we want our democracy back, starting today, starting now, we must BE THE PEOPLE.

Intrigue

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We did get two good dumps of snow, and after we blew those out, we got heavy winds on Thursday to blow it back in! We blew that back out on Friday, and Wendy scraped off the pavement so it could burn clean. She has added her annual bookkeeping assignment to her work regime this week—that will take several days. As always, Sweet Adelines choir provides some business, and we also have rehearsals with Silver Sounds choir. I often chafe under the business when I lament getting over scheduled. This week, I added the Provincial Mixed Doubles curling out at Kakabeka—that was my first experience officiating mixed doubles, very interesting. I have picked up my uniform for Scotties which begins next weekend. On Thursday, I had an appointment at the RAVE (Rapid Access Vascular Examination) Clinic. The doctors there confirmed that my pulse was good in my feet, but the venous flow was clearly compromised by the blood clots in the left leg. The only new information they provided is that I am suffering from eczema in that foot. They feel this could be providing the access to the infectious agents, so they recommend that I treat the eczema. It has been a terrible, no good, very bad, week in business as the Orange Felon has stuck his oar in and messed things up badly. With his tariff threats, he got nothing for his country, but created a lot of turmoil in China, Mexico and here in Canada. He is still vowing to take us over, along with Greenland and the Panama Canal! In another fiasco, he is trying to cancel USAID which was championed by his daughter, Ivanka, and supported strongly by him in his first administration—it's all very sad! Fortunately, the courts have ruled against him for now, so we hope the funding for the major efforts against malaria and AIDS will continue. In general, the chaotic rants are creating unease in the financial markets, and all are in the red this month, and so am I. The hockey world is preparing for the Four Nations Cup, and we're looking forward to that. Many provinces are running their men's provincial curling championships this week. I've been following Kevin Koe's progress through the Alberta competition. He has advanced to the final set for tomorrow. The #16-Jayhawks won a great game against #3-Iowa on Tuesday, but they lost today to Kansas State, so they may lose ranking again. 

Erica wrote, "We  called Liam and Haaken for their birthdays. Our youngest is now a quarter of a century old! When did that happen? Haaken turned 28 and is closing in on 30. Both are doing well. Greg staunchly refuses to participate in Birthday month so we will call him in September. Liam is taking an elective accounting class and we spent some time on the phone going over some questions he had. In all but one case he knew the right answer; he just needed someone else to confirm. This week Eric presented a therapy approach for working with the whole family to a group of professionals across the country via Zoom. The presentation was called Family Systems Trauma. The presentation was very well received and there was a lengthy Q&A. I am in the final stages of planning for my trip to Germany for surgery. I leave on Tuesday and surgery is next Friday. I also had a concert on Monday at the care home in Shellbrooke. We are starting to jell as a group and are having a lot of fun!"

As predicted, Erin is very busy this week, and is even working this Saturday with her mentor. It has been a challenging session as she is not only getting help, and, doing it her friend's way to get it done, but also learning how to do it her own way! She is confident it will be more efficient after this. She has come to one important conclusion this week—she's cheering for the Eagles! Kristian reports that his skin condition is much improved under the current therapy—maybe I should get that. He has also been contacting the Deaf and Hard of Hearing support group about employment opportunities, but there have been no further developments there. 

Travis & Joanna continue to run more photoshoots, but that must be over soon as the hockey season is nearing the end. Trav also continues to push out Bucket Decal orders. The dogs are doing well, and Marigold brought the folks over Monday evening for supper and a visit. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Infection!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has been mild, and we've had some additional snowfall. They are threatening a major dump overnight and tomorrow, and I'm thinking it may even be the kind of test where the snowblower is asked to do the whole job. When the snowfall is light, we use large pusher blades to move the snow to the edge of the driveway, and then use the blower to throw it up onto the lawn. 

"So long as it doesn't turn black!"

I have been suffering with another infected toe, so Wendy is busy taking care of both me and the dog! I had an infected toe in December and after a course of antibiotics it cleared up, but now the toe next to it has succumbed. We went in to ER on Sunday after church, and they prescribed antibiotics, along with daily return trips to get it redressed and to monitor its progress. When it hadn't improved by Wednesday, they installed a PICC line and prescribed continuing antibiotics, daily visits for dressing along with IV antibiotics. Finally, today, they decided I could switch to tablet form antibiotics in addition to my pill form antibiotics, but could end the IV antibiotics—this growing old business! In addition, they have added the RAVE (Rapid Access Vascular Examination) clinic to my regimen where they will analyze my circulation to that foot and those toes to see if they can prevent this from happening again. That leg is the one where I have DVTs, and they are wondering if there is something they can do to improve venous circulation. And speaking of afflictions, his Orangeness pushed forward his tariff threat yesterday at noon, crashing the markets and leaving Canada and Mexico to wonder what it all means, because, of course, nothing has been specified. It seems impossible to accept that he doesn't understand how tariffs work, but he claims to not know it. Some still speculate over whether it will happen at all—he said it would happen on January 20th, then February 1st, and now he's saying next Tuesday! In his case, chaos is not a bug, it's a feature. After four years of peace and good governance, we get the Orange Felon who is hereby threatening to break the "perfect USMCA" trade agreement he negotiated in his first term. At least, despite his lunacy, we had a good January in the markets, but there's a lot of wondering about what February will bring. In the world of hockey, my Oilers and Leafs remain at the top of their respective divisions, while the sad sack Pens have started the sell off of talent. All three played this evening, but Oilers played Leafs, so only one could win that game! Pens and Leafs won. The #11-Jayhawks won their first game this week. I even got to watch, and suffer, today—a tough road game at Baylor where we collapsed in the second half, sigh! Scotties Curling is getting closer; I picked up my uniform today! 

Erica writes, "We had some beautiful, unseasonable weather for January. The thermometer popped just above zero for a few days. The streets got slushy, snow melted… and today temperatures returned to more seasonable numbers. Now, we have ice! Eric will be teaching for University of Lethbridge again this spring. He’s looking forward to that." 

Erin writes, "There is no real change in Regina other than weather was nice :) Work is busy. I am resting up this weekend, as the next two weeks will be the toughest ones doing 2024 year end as well as January month end. It will be busy days, and late nights. I haven’t decided who to cheer for yet in the Super Bowl, Eagles or Chiefs. I might just let it come to me once I start watching the game." [editor: at least she has another week to prepare for that!]

Travis & Joanna keep busy. Travis brought Marigold by for a play date with Kali; they both seemed to enjoy that! Both pups are working through their vaccination updates—the joys of growing up. Trav and I enjoy texting through many a hockey game! 

And that's about it for this week. 

The Actual Art of the Deal

Ronald Reagan on trade: "Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag. The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful and prosperous world of freedom."

Everybody should read this accurate and enlightening piece...

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn't another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM—HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

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Moving Ahead

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has moved through a really cold phase under the Polar Vortex, and we have returned to near zero temperatures. Along with the warming trend, we're back into snowfall, so I am relieved to have my snowblower repaired and returned. It was in operation this morning and ran great! With the warmer weather, Kali has enjoyed getting out for walks and to play in the snow. She also had her vet-visit to update her vaccination program. Otherwise, my main extra activity this week is officiating at the Provincial Curling Championships. I've been assigned to operating the time clocks for the teams. You really have to be on the alert to get their clocks turned on and off at the appropriate times. Fortunately, as my father often reminded me—despite that I'm poor, I can afford to pay attention! Wendy keeps up with her choir work and singing, but we were both feeling a little under the weather with head colds part of the week, and decided not to spread that at the Silver Sound choir practice on Thursday. The extra rest seems to have been helpful. I was back to the doctor on Wednesday to follow-up on my infected toe issue. She is satisfied that things are progressing well, but advises that I increase my use of a compression stocking on that leg to aid circulation—she prescribed me a new set. Now, my next toe is infected. Wendy is medicating me, and we're looking to get back to the doctor early next week if it doesn't clear up over the weekend. The world is watching, waiting and reacting as the Orange Felon continues to spout his insane rants about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. Concurrently, he has cancelled nearly all foreign aid. We can expect that all those countries will now come under the funding, influence, and control of China—an unintended, and unfortunate consequence. The markets displayed concomitant volatility, but I managed a good week. The college football final went as I expected with Ohio State winning. In basketball, the #12-Jayhawks managed a tough road win early in the week and returned home for a battle with #7-Houston today—they lost in Double OverTime, sigh! Rock Chalk boys—they certainly should have won! The Oilers were short-handed this week as McDavid served a 3-game suspension, however, they managed two wins and kept their lofty standing in place—first place in their division. Penguins are struggling between being a wild card team or dropping down for a high draft pick! All my teams played to day: Only Oilers won, c'mon Leafs and Pens. 

Erica writes, "I took my neighbour to Saskatoon for an appointment. She doesn’t drive and it makes for a fun trip to the city. We discovered a really great liquidation store where she bought some clothing for her family and I picked up my favourite sweet and salty popcorn! We finished off at Costco before heading back. Her sons are a big help to us. One shovels the snow and the other does our house cleaning. Eric is continuing to heal from his eye treatment. Some days are good and other days his eyes are very tired. We are hoping at his next check up he can get refitted for prescription glasses. I’ve sent off my fee for surgery in Germany. I leave on the 11th. Surgery is on the 14th. If all goes well, I’ll be back home on the 25th. Oh and Eric organized my sock and underwear drawers!"

Yeah, that looks better!

Erin writes, "We had another cold snap, but since I got my car a new battery and battery maintainer, she wasn’t allowed to complain by not starting. So, she just went into limp mode instead. At least it happened at work so the guys gave me a Tiguan to drive for the night and we fixed the RAV4 up the next day." And Kristian wrote, "Same old, same old."

A fun Dog-Date

Travis and Joanna acclimated quickly to the frigid temperatures here and are back at their various work assignments. Fortunately, Travis was able to take some time off to bring Marigold for a visit. Kali was becoming stir-crazy with the old folks who live here! Andrew is doing great on his course and exams. 

And that's enough for this week.