A New Year

I may have told you this before, but I find New Year to be an artificial construct. Had they established the Solstice as the beginning of a new year, I would have accepted that as meaningful, but there's nothing special about beginning another month and deciding it's the start of another year. However, like most days, we stayed up until after midnight and ushered in the New Year with Travis and Joanna, and the dogs! Thus, in this case, another year has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned cold with overnight lows even reaching down to -20°—brrrr! We have had no further snow, but I suppose it will return eventually. Other than New Year observances it has been a quiet week. Wendy performed my first haircut of the year—diminishing returns there! I have worked through the ElderFit program, and then through the SAFE program out of McGill. Now, I'm using the Get Fit Fast program. There are lots of options available through YouTube since I'm too cheap to actually pay for one!

Hey, I found the TP

Kali has provided some mischief as usual. She is a very active little rascal and gives us daily concerns about tripping over her. The markets ended the year with days of selling pressure, but we have started the new year with some green—keep 'er goin'! The MAGAs allowed the election of the speaker in the US House on Friday, but promptly issued a statement declaring that that was the end of their cooperation—sigh! Next week, we will see what the markets make of the new threats. The Leafs and Oilers are comfortably in playoff contention, while the Penguins are tied for the final wild card slot. The football playoffs continue with Texas advancing as expected over the Razorbacks in overtime. There are only four teams left, so it will be tough sledding from now on, but I really thought that Arizona State might be the toughest opponent left, so we'll see how they do against Ohio State next week. #7-Jayhawks lost their first conference game this week, so I'm expecting them to get dropped again in the rankings—Rock Chalk!

Mystery Train

Erica enjoyed a special feature this week as her girl band Mystery Train had an evening gig at Mr. Mikes. She reports that she enjoyed it a great deal, and they have feelers from other establishments for further engagements. Otherwise, they enjoyed the holidays with family around and are now sending the last of them on their way. 

Erin and Kristian are enduring a frosty Regina with temperatures dropping into the -30s. Her car battery refused to put up with that, and has now been replaced—under warranty, fortunately! 

Travis and Joanna are off to Punta Cana tomorrow, so they spent a pretty frantic week producing and delivering a lot of product for Bucket Decals and PuckShots. We pray for good and safe travel and for a restful time in the Dominican Republic. Gemma and Jonas are completing their holidays and will be heading out next week as well. 

And that's about enough for this week. 

Investing Report 2024

2024 Investing Results

Indices:
TSX     +18.0%
DOW   +12.9%
S&P     +23.3%
NAS     +28.6%

Personal: 22.4%
I operate a variety of strategies in my own accounts including some of the plays described below, as well as some BnH (Buy & Hold) of good dividend paying stocks. While this doesn’t offer the blow away possibilities that the index ETF play may produce, it is sufficient for my current needs.

3/8 Rising Tide: 19.0%
This play works on the “Rising Tide” theory using the 3/8 crossover on the weekly chart. 
Note: I have eliminated some sectors (GD, Miners, HC). 
Trading Plan: Plan your trade; trade your plan! 
1. TSX must be IN. 
2. Sector must be IN. Pick best 3 sectors. 
3. Stock must be IN. Pick up to  2 stocks per sector to a max of 5 holdings. 
4. Take a bias toward sectors and stocks that have recently crossed over. 
5. Buy when the 3 crosses over the 8. 
6. Sell when the 8 crosses over the 3. 
7. Also use a 6% TStop on advisory basis.

Index ETFs: 33.3%
Also assessed BnH of index ETFs: 38.6%
X: 34.8%
S: 40.9%
Q: 40.1%

This technical play operates on weekly charting of the 3 and 8 EMAs for each of the leveraged ETFs in question: HXU, HSU, HQU. 
-I buy when the 3EMA rises above the 8EMA on the weekly chart. I watch the charts during the day if it’s getting close and place a buy/sell near the end of the trading day. 
-I sell when the 8EMA moves above the 3EMA, and for additional safety, I watch them against a 6% TStop, but refuse to use a hard Trailing Stop. 
-I also watch the daily charting of the crossovers as an early indicator in reflection of these volatile times! 
-BnH has surpassed the trading strategy two of the three years I’ve been monitoring this, but the other year it lost 40.1%! This year the difference was between 33.3% and 38.6%. I’m willing to accommodate my ability to sleep at night for that potential 5.3% gap! 

5/13 Daily: 16.9%   I have decided to eliminate this play as it tended to gravitate to the same batch of equities as the 3/8 Rising Tide play. 
This technical play operates on daily charting of the 5 and 13 EMAs . The 200 SMA is also used as the criterion for a general uptrend. 
Leveraged ETFs are not considered for this play.  

BUY rules
-During a general uptrend (TSX and equity under consideration both above 200-SMA) I buy the equity when the 5-EMA rises above the 13-EMA. 
-When a buy is imminent, I watch the charts during the day, and place a buy when the value crosses above the 13-EMA

SELL rule 
-I sell when the 5-EMA drops below the 13-EMA. 

I have other plays, but I haven’t used any of them this year. They tend to use more time and require more monitoring. I can manage what I’m currently doing in a few minutes each day, and perhaps another 15 minutes on the weekend.