Alas!

 Guest Post, by a friend from the USA, Michael James

OK, HELLO WORLD...

For most of my adult life, I worked as a journalist in this country and credibly, factually, told the public thousands of stories at the Detroit News, New York Daily News and as head writer for a TV show on ESPN. None of the stories I have ever written is more important than the one I am writing now.

If you will indulge me a lack of brevity this one time, I will explain.

It begins with the three times I realized that the safety and security we so prize here in the United States of America is an illusion. It's not and never was true. It doesn't exist. We only believed it did.

The first time I realized it was in the aftermath of 9/11. After I witnessed the World Trade Center towers crumble before my eyes little more than a mile from my New York City apartment, authorities posted police with automatic weapons and huge American flags at the entrance to every bridge and tunnel in the city.

We felt safe seeing those images, but each time I ventured through those tunnels and over those bridges, I had a question:

"What's stopping that truck in front of me from being laden down with fertilizer and explosives? Who knows what's in the trunk of every car in front and back of me?"

We weren't safe at all. Terrorists just didn't decide to blow us all to hell.

The second time I realized there is no such thing as safety and security came when Donald Trump promised building a wall at the Southern border to keep illegals out.

I thought, "Mexicans are renowned for building tunnels from Mexico directly to homes on the US side in Texas and California to smuggle in people and drugs. How can a wall prevent that?"

A wall could not make us safe at all. We only believed it could.

The third time I realized safety and security is an illusion was on January 6th, 2021, when Donald Trump's MAGA supporters overran the United States Capitol—the seat of power of the US government—injuring law enforcement officers and defacing the offices of cowering, terrified duly elected lawmakers.

The ease with which they penetrated our most sacred symbols of the rule of law and order in America showed me that if this could be done by only a few thousand mostly-unarmed citizens, there really is no such thing as safety and security in this country.

We only believed there was.

The final time I realized there is no safety and security in the United States of America has come in the last three weeks, or rather, since Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Under the guise of weeding out corruption and with South African-born Elon Musk as the tip of the spear, Donald Trump and his Republican confederates have turned every facet of American government upside down, installed inexperienced and unqualified loyalists in positions of power in every sector of government and thrown thousands of hard-working Americans—many of whom voted for him—out into the streets.

While stunned, outnumbered Democrats were frozen to inaction, Trump, through executive order, made laws, changed laws and ignored orders from courts to stop in his tracks.

While those of us who opposed him screamed that his actions and those of Elon Musk were tantamount to creating a fascist government and a dictatorship, we were only partially right.

See, people, Trump's dictatorship has already begun. It is HERE. It is NOW.

For those who don't believe this is true, what we all missed while focusing on the flood of executive orders and bizarre musings of taking over the Gaza Strip, annexing Canada as the 51st state against their will, purchasing Greenland to rename it Red, White and Blueland and taking over the Panama Canal is this:

Trump was merely testing the waters to see how much power and authority he truly had. The final step in his plan will be to ignore any and all court challenges aimed at stopping him.

What should be clear to you now is that there was really only one barrier to Donald Trump taking over this country and remaking it in his image:

The fact that the only thing that has kept our democracy in place since it was written in 1787 is a piece of paper called the U.S. constitution.

That constitution only works if our politicians RESPECT the power within, the rule of law.

Donald Trump clearly does not respect the constitution as have all other United States presidents before him.

Worse, without respect for the constitution and our laws, THERE IS NO AUTHORITY LEFT TO STOP HIM.

There is no police force who can reign Trump in.

There is no military to reign Trump in.

There are no lawmakers or judges to reign Trump in.

And soon, as Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayer declared recently during a speech at Miami Dade College, Donald Trump will refuse to comply with all orders of the court—and his takeover will be complete—for there is no authority remaining to police him.

Like Sotomayer, the American Bar Association just released a statement declaring that, “Trump is not following the rule of law.”

Now, the reason why the ABA sounds like a kid screaming, “Charlie hit me!” is because they’ve reached the conclusion that there is nothing they can do about Trump not following the rule of law. This has never happened before in the history of this country, but it IS happening now.

Hey, America, hey World, you can call it a monarchy, or fascism or a totalitarian government or a dictatorship, but whatever you call it, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are the law of the land now.

Don't believe me?

The 1,500 January 6th rioters who were tried and convicted in federal courts?

Trump freed them. On Day 1.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who was brought up on corruption charges after a decade-long investigation?

He cozied up to Trump, who ordered his Department of Justice to drop the charges.

If that's not enough, I think Donald Trump has one more trick up his sleeve, as I predict he is being lobbied at this very moment to grant clemency to an old friend who has been accused of pedophilia, drugging and raping male and female victims, physically assaulting others and possibly sanctioning numerous murders over the past 30 years.

So what, pray tell, will you say when Donald Trump pardons Sean Diddy Combs?

The lyrics to that song you sang in grade school have changed, folks:

This land is NOT your land.

This land is NOT my land.

NOT from California.

NOT to the New York Islands.

NOT from the Redwood Forest

NOR to the Gulf of America waters

This land belongs to Trump and E.

In less than a month back in office, all of the checks and balances have been removed. Republicans control the house and the senate. Every cabinet pick Trump proposes will be confirmed. No decision he makes, whether it's instructing the Treasury Department to stop making the penny or bringing back the plastic straw, is being denied.

While his supporters cheer his every move, they have yet to see the cost cuts Elon Musk and his team of hackers make under cover of darkness are hurting American farmers, American workers and those in the poorest red states in the country who voted for him.

For them, and us, it's already too late to realize it's too late.

If you saw Musk recently in the oval office with his young son holding court while Trump sat idly by, you should have realized the richest man in the world controls the supposed most powerful man in the world.

Only Elon Musk is holding Elon Musk accountable and Trump—who is likely paying Musk back for whatever he did to help him take the 2024 election—is allowing it to happen.

As you read these words, it is likely that Elon Musk has already had his hackers place back doors into every major computer system across the US government, which gives him the power to shut down any program he chooses at any time on an app while sitting in the driver's seat of his Tesla.

For those in the back or in the nosebleed section or under a rock, let me say it again:

Elon Musk and Donald Trump are the law of the land. Today. Right now.

The United States of America is no longer a democracy. We are now a dictatorship.

In closing, let me say that I don't believe in presenting problems without offering solutions. There IS something we can do to fight this takeover and resist this bloodless coup that has stripped away the sense of freedom we have known all of our lives—but it will require of us a resolve and action most of us have never known or shown.

It will require us to unite, fight, stand up, risk our lives and our liberty—because one thing dictators have never fully understood is that THE PEOPLE truly are the power.

Think of it this way: if we don't want the price of an automobile in America to be $50,000, well, if nobody buys those cars, there won't be a $50,000 car in America.

With that in mind, should Elon Musk and Donald Trump try to dump hundreds of thousands of federal employees out into the streets, simply refuse to leave. If forced from your offices, show up to work en masse the next day—and every day after—and make sure NOBODY goes into those offices.

If Trump's new Department of Defense head Pete Hegseth makes a demand of the 3.5 million workers he now oversees, what can he possibly do if they disobey in the name of American democracy?

The same goes for new national security director Tulsi Gabbard, who has never worked in security or run a department of ANY kind. The same goes for new secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, new Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. or any other Trump appointee.

None of these figureheads—not even Trump himself—can do anything without our complicity.

Lastly, this battle is only just beginning. You must protect your physical and mental well-being.

You don't have the time or energy to fight meaningless squabbles on social media against Trump's MAGA sycophants who believe every narrative they sell.

No matter if they are friends or family or casual acquaintances on social media, SILENCE THEIR VOICES and influence. Block, snooze, delete or ignore them.

For me, the purge begins TODAY! I’d love to tell the people going away that it isn’t personal, but their blind belief system is a direct threat to me, my friends, family, neighbors, fellow Americans, Canadians, Palestinians, and, well, you get the picture.

Trust what your eyes and ears are telling you. Hope that they will catch up and join our fight against this power virus threatening our country and the world.

Lastly, remember the words of philosopher Bertrand Russell, who said roughly this of how fascism begins: "First they fascinate the fools. Then they muzzle the intelligent."

If you've gotten this far, it's because you're not a fool.

We got here because all of our lives we believed in that concept devised by our founding fathers of "We The People."

Well, the only way out from under the megalomania of Donald Trump, Elon Musk and their collaborators is to make every day January 6th.

If you feel so moved, please share my post. If not, please act in some way. We need all hands on deck.

If we want our democracy back, starting today, starting now, we must BE THE PEOPLE.

Intrigue

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We did get two good dumps of snow, and after we blew those out, we got heavy winds on Thursday to blow it back in! We blew that back out on Friday, and Wendy scraped off the pavement so it could burn clean. She has added her annual bookkeeping assignment to her work regime this week—that will take several days. As always, Sweet Adelines choir provides some business, and we also have rehearsals with Silver Sounds choir. I often chafe under the business when I lament getting over scheduled. This week, I added the Provincial Mixed Doubles curling out at Kakabeka—that was my first experience officiating mixed doubles, very interesting. I have picked up my uniform for Scotties which begins next weekend. On Thursday, I had an appointment at the RAVE (Rapid Access Vascular Examination) Clinic. The doctors there confirmed that my pulse was good in my feet, but the venous flow was clearly compromised by the blood clots in the left leg. The only new information they provided is that I am suffering from eczema in that foot. They feel this could be providing the access to the infectious agents, so they recommend that I treat the eczema. It has been a terrible, no good, very bad, week in business as the Orange Felon has stuck his oar in and messed things up badly. With his tariff threats, he got nothing for his country, but created a lot of turmoil in China, Mexico and here in Canada. He is still vowing to take us over, along with Greenland and the Panama Canal! In another fiasco, he is trying to cancel USAID which was championed by his daughter, Ivanka, and supported strongly by him in his first administration—it's all very sad! Fortunately, the courts have ruled against him for now, so we hope the funding for the major efforts against malaria and AIDS will continue. In general, the chaotic rants are creating unease in the financial markets, and all are in the red this month, and so am I. The hockey world is preparing for the Four Nations Cup, and we're looking forward to that. Many provinces are running their men's provincial curling championships this week. I've been following Kevin Koe's progress through the Alberta competition. He has advanced to the final set for tomorrow. The #16-Jayhawks won a great game against #3-Iowa on Tuesday, but they lost today to Kansas State, so they may lose ranking again. 

Erica wrote, "We  called Liam and Haaken for their birthdays. Our youngest is now a quarter of a century old! When did that happen? Haaken turned 28 and is closing in on 30. Both are doing well. Greg staunchly refuses to participate in Birthday month so we will call him in September. Liam is taking an elective accounting class and we spent some time on the phone going over some questions he had. In all but one case he knew the right answer; he just needed someone else to confirm. This week Eric presented a therapy approach for working with the whole family to a group of professionals across the country via Zoom. The presentation was called Family Systems Trauma. The presentation was very well received and there was a lengthy Q&A. I am in the final stages of planning for my trip to Germany for surgery. I leave on Tuesday and surgery is next Friday. I also had a concert on Monday at the care home in Shellbrooke. We are starting to jell as a group and are having a lot of fun!"

As predicted, Erin is very busy this week, and is even working this Saturday with her mentor. It has been a challenging session as she is not only getting help, and, doing it her friend's way to get it done, but also learning how to do it her own way! She is confident it will be more efficient after this. She has come to one important conclusion this week—she's cheering for the Eagles! Kristian reports that his skin condition is much improved under the current therapy—maybe I should get that. He has also been contacting the Deaf and Hard of Hearing support group about employment opportunities, but there have been no further developments there. 

Travis & Joanna continue to run more photoshoots, but that must be over soon as the hockey season is nearing the end. Trav also continues to push out Bucket Decal orders. The dogs are doing well, and Marigold brought the folks over Monday evening for supper and a visit. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Infection!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has been mild, and we've had some additional snowfall. They are threatening a major dump overnight and tomorrow, and I'm thinking it may even be the kind of test where the snowblower is asked to do the whole job. When the snowfall is light, we use large pusher blades to move the snow to the edge of the driveway, and then use the blower to throw it up onto the lawn. 

"So long as it doesn't turn black!"

I have been suffering with another infected toe, so Wendy is busy taking care of both me and the dog! I had an infected toe in December and after a course of antibiotics it cleared up, but now the toe next to it has succumbed. We went in to ER on Sunday after church, and they prescribed antibiotics, along with daily return trips to get it redressed and to monitor its progress. When it hadn't improved by Wednesday, they installed a PICC line and prescribed continuing antibiotics, daily visits for dressing along with IV antibiotics. Finally, today, they decided I could switch to tablet form antibiotics in addition to my pill form antibiotics, but could end the IV antibiotics—this growing old business! In addition, they have added the RAVE (Rapid Access Vascular Examination) clinic to my regimen where they will analyze my circulation to that foot and those toes to see if they can prevent this from happening again. That leg is the one where I have DVTs, and they are wondering if there is something they can do to improve venous circulation. And speaking of afflictions, his Orangeness pushed forward his tariff threat yesterday at noon, crashing the markets and leaving Canada and Mexico to wonder what it all means, because, of course, nothing has been specified. It seems impossible to accept that he doesn't understand how tariffs work, but he claims to not know it. Some still speculate over whether it will happen at all—he said it would happen on January 20th, then February 1st, and now he's saying next Tuesday! In his case, chaos is not a bug, it's a feature. After four years of peace and good governance, we get the Orange Felon who is hereby threatening to break the "perfect USMCA" trade agreement he negotiated in his first term. At least, despite his lunacy, we had a good January in the markets, but there's a lot of wondering about what February will bring. In the world of hockey, my Oilers and Leafs remain at the top of their respective divisions, while the sad sack Pens have started the sell off of talent. All three played this evening, but Oilers played Leafs, so only one could win that game! Pens and Leafs won. The #11-Jayhawks won their first game this week. I even got to watch, and suffer, today—a tough road game at Baylor where we collapsed in the second half, sigh! Scotties Curling is getting closer; I picked up my uniform today! 

Erica writes, "We had some beautiful, unseasonable weather for January. The thermometer popped just above zero for a few days. The streets got slushy, snow melted… and today temperatures returned to more seasonable numbers. Now, we have ice! Eric will be teaching for University of Lethbridge again this spring. He’s looking forward to that." 

Erin writes, "There is no real change in Regina other than weather was nice :) Work is busy. I am resting up this weekend, as the next two weeks will be the toughest ones doing 2024 year end as well as January month end. It will be busy days, and late nights. I haven’t decided who to cheer for yet in the Super Bowl, Eagles or Chiefs. I might just let it come to me once I start watching the game." [editor: at least she has another week to prepare for that!]

Travis & Joanna keep busy. Travis brought Marigold by for a play date with Kali; they both seemed to enjoy that! Both pups are working through their vaccination updates—the joys of growing up. Trav and I enjoy texting through many a hockey game! 

And that's about it for this week. 

The Actual Art of the Deal

Ronald Reagan on trade: "Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag. The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful and prosperous world of freedom."

Everybody should read this accurate and enlightening piece...

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn't another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM—HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

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Moving Ahead

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has moved through a really cold phase under the Polar Vortex, and we have returned to near zero temperatures. Along with the warming trend, we're back into snowfall, so I am relieved to have my snowblower repaired and returned. It was in operation this morning and ran great! With the warmer weather, Kali has enjoyed getting out for walks and to play in the snow. She also had her vet-visit to update her vaccination program. Otherwise, my main extra activity this week is officiating at the Provincial Curling Championships. I've been assigned to operating the time clocks for the teams. You really have to be on the alert to get their clocks turned on and off at the appropriate times. Fortunately, as my father often reminded me—despite that I'm poor, I can afford to pay attention! Wendy keeps up with her choir work and singing, but we were both feeling a little under the weather with head colds part of the week, and decided not to spread that at the Silver Sound choir practice on Thursday. The extra rest seems to have been helpful. I was back to the doctor on Wednesday to follow-up on my infected toe issue. She is satisfied that things are progressing well, but advises that I increase my use of a compression stocking on that leg to aid circulation—she prescribed me a new set. Now, my next toe is infected. Wendy is medicating me, and we're looking to get back to the doctor early next week if it doesn't clear up over the weekend. The world is watching, waiting and reacting as the Orange Felon continues to spout his insane rants about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. Concurrently, he has cancelled nearly all foreign aid. We can expect that all those countries will now come under the funding, influence, and control of China—an unintended, and unfortunate consequence. The markets displayed concomitant volatility, but I managed a good week. The college football final went as I expected with Ohio State winning. In basketball, the #12-Jayhawks managed a tough road win early in the week and returned home for a battle with #7-Houston today—they lost in Double OverTime, sigh! Rock Chalk boys—they certainly should have won! The Oilers were short-handed this week as McDavid served a 3-game suspension, however, they managed two wins and kept their lofty standing in place—first place in their division. Penguins are struggling between being a wild card team or dropping down for a high draft pick! All my teams played to day: Only Oilers won, c'mon Leafs and Pens. 

Erica writes, "I took my neighbour to Saskatoon for an appointment. She doesn’t drive and it makes for a fun trip to the city. We discovered a really great liquidation store where she bought some clothing for her family and I picked up my favourite sweet and salty popcorn! We finished off at Costco before heading back. Her sons are a big help to us. One shovels the snow and the other does our house cleaning. Eric is continuing to heal from his eye treatment. Some days are good and other days his eyes are very tired. We are hoping at his next check up he can get refitted for prescription glasses. I’ve sent off my fee for surgery in Germany. I leave on the 11th. Surgery is on the 14th. If all goes well, I’ll be back home on the 25th. Oh and Eric organized my sock and underwear drawers!"

Yeah, that looks better!

Erin writes, "We had another cold snap, but since I got my car a new battery and battery maintainer, she wasn’t allowed to complain by not starting. So, she just went into limp mode instead. At least it happened at work so the guys gave me a Tiguan to drive for the night and we fixed the RAV4 up the next day." And Kristian wrote, "Same old, same old."

A fun Dog-Date

Travis and Joanna acclimated quickly to the frigid temperatures here and are back at their various work assignments. Fortunately, Travis was able to take some time off to bring Marigold for a visit. Kali was becoming stir-crazy with the old folks who live here! Andrew is doing great on his course and exams. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Thanks, Uncle Joe!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has been nice with above freezing temperatures mid-week, but now we're back into seasonable temperatures, and under threat of very frigid temperatures to start next week. They're predicting -30°. Our snowblower quit on Monday, but fortunately, we haven't had snow since. The repair guy found an electrical issue, and got it running again easily, but can't seem to keep it working. It made a ride home, but it wouldn't start here, so, it's back with him! Our choir practices started again this week on a new list of songs. Our Spring Concert is set for Mother's Day weekend. I have had another good week in the markets on the final week of the Biden administration. It usually takes up to six months to see the changes caused by the new administration, but if Trump follows through on his threats of rule by fiat, that may come more quickly. At this point, I simply say, "Thanks, Uncle Joe!" 
"Look what Biden did to America!" screams MAGA. 

According to the Department of Labor, the American economy added 256,000 new jobs in December, a number significantly higher than economists expected. That brings the total number of jobs created under Biden to 16.6 million and makes Biden’s the ONLY administration in history to have created jobs EVERY MONTH. Under the Biden administration, the nation has also had the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in fifty years, ending at 4.1%. The U.S. gained more jobs during Biden’s four years than it did under Donald Trump, Barack Obama, or George W. Bush. Under Biden administration, the U.S. economy has grown faster and created more jobs than any other country with an advanced economy. Working-age women are now employed at record levels, and the gap in employment between Black Americans and their white counterparts is at the lowest level on record. The administration has brought the inflation of the early recovery back down to target levels, while incomes have increased. 

"But what about the price of eggs?" whispers MAGA... 

The Masters of Curling was my big event this week. My guy, #15-Koe, opted out of this event, so I was cheering for #3-Dunstone, #5-McEwen, #6-Jacobs, but McEwen didn't make the playoffs. On the women's side, my gal, #6-Einarson, made the playoffs, but has lost out. It'll be #6-Jacobs vs #8-Whyte in the men's final, and #1-Homan vs #4-Hasselborg in the women's final. In hockey, my Oilers have continued to win and have moved into a tie for the division lead. The Leafs remain atop their division, while Pens have fallen well off the pace. As is often the case on Saturday nights, all three played—Leafs won. In basketball, my #9-Jayhawks dropped a game to #2-Iowa State early in the week, but returned home to defeat interstate rival Kansas State today. Rock Chalk! 

Erica writes, "We had an uneventful trip back from Swift Current. It was fortunate that we decided to drive down on Friday, as the highways were really bad on Saturday. The temperature had warmed up and there was a light rain overnight that turned to ice on the highway. Then, we got a big dump of snow on Thursday. Our friend, Guido, had to go rescue one of his buses and ended up stranded himself! So, the highways were pretty bad. Other than the weather it’s been a pretty ordinary week. Well, I guess for January the weather is pretty ordinary as well!" 

Erin writes, "It's been a busy week. I got December month end done and now I’m onto month 13 before I can start January. We’re letting my assistant go Monday morning. So, I’m taking on more work until we find a replacement. The timing is tough because it’s already extra busy with year end, but it needed to happen. Anyway, my plate is extra full, but we’ll get through it—I can do it! Haha. I have my computer home to work on year end stuff, but I’m taking advantage of quiet brain time right now. I’ll get at it later today. Football playoffs are this weekend, too, so I’ll work that in somehow. My new team this season is the Lions. I found myself cheering for them early on and now they’re headed to the Super Bowl 🤞 haha. Ulrich magic. Jags will always be #1 in my heart though. We’ll start again next season. And one of the guys installed my battery maintainer yesterday, so I can plug it in just like a block heater. I’ll make it to work Monday morning no matter what! Kristian and I had a movie and appetizer night last night. He’s still sleeping. The cats are hanging out with me😻!"

Good-bye for now, Punta Cana!

Travis and Joanna have enjoyed two weeks in Punta Cana and have begun the trip home. They're facing a 60° temperature shift, from +30 to -30! Yikes! We've been enjoying having Marigold with us. She and Kali are playing well, and vigorously, together. Andrew is home, so he has been taking care of things at the house as well as tending to Moxley and Darby. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Keep your grubby hands...

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The week began with cold weather, down to -20°, but has returned to single digits for the last half of the week. We still have no fresh snow, but they are promising(threatening) some beginning tomorrow. I was back to the doctor this week about my left foot, particularly my toes which are swollen. They opined that my DVTs are interfering to the point that I need to wear my compression stocking every day. I've done that these last three days, and the improvement is noticeable. I got my DVTs eight years ago, and have been managing them with blood thinners. I have only had to wear my compression stocking while we travel, or when I golf, but now, it appears, the situation requires it more. We'll see what my vascular surgeon thinks about it when I see her. Wendy keeps up with her usual choir and leadership team meetings and rehearsals, but her main activity these days is the DOGS! Kali and Marigold keep her going all day and part of the night! The markets have been troubled by good news and bad news! The main good news is the continuing strength of the USA economy. Again, this month they put up blowaway job gains with USA gaining 256K, and Canada doing even better, per capita, at 91K. This means we are not expecting the FED to cut the rates anytime soon.

The main bad news is the impending chaos of the Orange Felon taking office. He is continuing his threats against his neighbours while simultaneously allowing that he won't cut consumer costs, war in Ukraine won't end on his first day, etc! Voters should not expect to get what was promised! Thus, I'm barely in the green for the month so far. Investors remain on edge while we enjoy our final week of stable government down there. We are also in shaky governing times up here as Trudeau has announced a leadership campaign to replace him, and that will inevitably be followed by an election. "Interesting times" for sure! The big sporting event this week for me was the Astec Challenge—24 of the top men's teams in the world convened in Lloydminster SK. Several top teams did not advance to the playoffs including my guy, #15-Koe, along with #4-Jacobs and #5-Retornaz, so there will be some changes in the rankings. #6-McEwen faced #7-Dunstone in the final after they despatched #1-Mouat and #10-Edin in the semis—some great curling! The expert pundits aver that McEwen can't win anything with the Marsh twins—must be true because Dunstone slaughtered him in the final! In basketball, #11-Kansas (I warned you about the rankings changes) rolled off three impressive wins this week. The football playoffs continued and I really thought Texas was on a roll after taking out the Sun Devils last week, but as it turned out, Ohio State was just too tough, and ran away in the late going to move on to the championship game against Notre Dame. Finish it off Buckeyes! Oilers and Leafs are holding on near the top of their divisions, and Pens are in Wild Card position, so all my teams are doing okay. All three played tonight—Oilers won! 

Erica writes, "Liam was the last to leave us last Sunday. Then, we had the evening to get organized to be back at work for Monday. Our friends, Tina and Guido, became grandparents this week. That is the second couple in our small group. I’m not sure what is causing this but, so far Eric and I have managed to not catch it. We had plans to visit Manitou Springs this weekend, however, news of Edie’s passing caused us to pivot. We are down in Swift Current (aka Speedy Creek) for the weekend to remember Edie. Eric and I stayed with Edie many times on trips through or when Eric was itinerant preaching. She was always so hospitable!"

Edie Seibel 1933-2025

Erin and Kristian have worked through a phase of the annual deep freeze in Regina, and are now expecting a bit of a break in the weather, even above freezing by midweek. Unfortunately, that has come with icy roads and many accidents. In any case, things are going well for them, although Erin continues to suffer congestion from her month-long bout. Kristian now has a working VR headset, but has to sit down while using it because it's quite disorienting! Erin is not even sure she wants to try!

Travis and Joanna are in Punta Cana, enjoying the salubrious climes and tropical vistas. Meanwhile, we've been dealing with the dogs. Marigold is staying with us, while Moxley and Darby were at a kennel this week. Yesterday, Andrew came home for a session of courses and exams here in TBay. Today, we picked up the boys from the kennel and brought them home where Andrew will take care of them for the duration! Gemma and Jonas headed back to Vancouver and school this week. 

Punta Cana - 2025

And that's enough for this week. 

A New Year

I may have told you this before, but I find New Year to be an artificial construct. Had they established the Solstice as the beginning of a new year, I would have accepted that as meaningful, but there's nothing special about beginning another month and deciding it's the start of another year. However, like most days, we stayed up until after midnight and ushered in the New Year with Travis and Joanna, and the dogs! Thus, in this case, another year has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned cold with overnight lows even reaching down to -20°—brrrr! We have had no further snow, but I suppose it will return eventually. Other than New Year observances it has been a quiet week. Wendy performed my first haircut of the year—diminishing returns there! I have worked through the ElderFit program, and then through the SAFE program out of McGill. Now, I'm using the Get Fit Fast program. There are lots of options available through YouTube since I'm too cheap to actually pay for one!

Hey, I found the TP

Kali has provided some mischief as usual. She is a very active little rascal and gives us daily concerns about tripping over her. The markets ended the year with days of selling pressure, but we have started the new year with some green—keep 'er goin'! The MAGAs allowed the election of the speaker in the US House on Friday, but promptly issued a statement declaring that that was the end of their cooperation—sigh! Next week, we will see what the markets make of the new threats. The Leafs and Oilers are comfortably in playoff contention, while the Penguins are tied for the final wild card slot. The football playoffs continue with Texas advancing as expected over the Sun Devils in overtime. There are only four teams left, so it will be tough sledding from now on, but I really thought that Arizona State might be the toughest opponent left, so we'll see how they do against Ohio State next week. #7-Jayhawks lost their first conference game this week, so I'm expecting them to get dropped again in the rankings—Rock Chalk!

Mystery Train

Erica enjoyed a special feature this week as her girl band Mystery Train had an evening gig at Mr. Mikes. She reports that she enjoyed it a great deal, and they have feelers from other establishments for further engagements. Otherwise, they enjoyed the holidays with family around and are now sending the last of them on their way. 

Erin and Kristian are enduring a frosty Regina with temperatures dropping into the -30s. Her car battery refused to put up with that, and has now been replaced—under warranty, fortunately! 

Travis and Joanna are off to Punta Cana tomorrow, so they spent a pretty frantic week producing and delivering a lot of product for Bucket Decals and PuckShots. We pray for good and safe travel and for a restful time in the Dominican Republic. Gemma and Jonas are completing their holidays and will be heading out next week as well. 

And that's about enough for this week. 

Investing Report 2024

2024 Investing Results

Indices:
TSX     +18.0%
DOW   +12.9%
S&P     +23.3%
NAS     +28.6%

Personal: 22.4%
I operate a variety of strategies in my own accounts including some of the plays described below, as well as some BnH (Buy & Hold) of good dividend paying stocks. While this doesn’t offer the blow away possibilities that the index ETF play may produce, it is sufficient for my current needs.

3/8 Rising Tide: 19.0%
This play works on the “Rising Tide” theory using the 3/8 crossover on the weekly chart. 
Note: I have eliminated some sectors (GD, Miners, HC). 
Trading Plan: Plan your trade; trade your plan! 
1. TSX must be IN. 
2. Sector must be IN. Pick best 3 sectors. 
3. Stock must be IN. Pick up to  2 stocks per sector to a max of 5 holdings. 
4. Take a bias toward sectors and stocks that have recently crossed over. 
5. Buy when the 3 crosses over the 8. 
6. Sell when the 8 crosses over the 3. 
7. Also use a 6% TStop on advisory basis.

Index ETFs: 33.3%
Also assessed BnH of index ETFs: 38.6%
X: 34.8%
S: 40.9%
Q: 40.1%

This technical play operates on weekly charting of the 3 and 8 EMAs for each of the leveraged ETFs in question: HXU, HSU, HQU. 
-I buy when the 3EMA rises above the 8EMA on the weekly chart. I watch the charts during the day if it’s getting close and place a buy/sell near the end of the trading day. 
-I sell when the 8EMA moves above the 3EMA, and for additional safety, I watch them against a 6% TStop, but refuse to use a hard Trailing Stop. 
-I also watch the daily charting of the crossovers as an early indicator in reflection of these volatile times! 
-BnH has surpassed the trading strategy two of the three years I’ve been monitoring this, but the other year it lost 40.1%! This year the difference was between 33.3% and 38.6%. I’m willing to accommodate my ability to sleep at night for that potential 5.3% gap! 

5/13 Daily: 16.9%   I have decided to eliminate this play as it tended to gravitate to the same batch of equities as the 3/8 Rising Tide play. 
This technical play operates on daily charting of the 5 and 13 EMAs . The 200 SMA is also used as the criterion for a general uptrend. 
Leveraged ETFs are not considered for this play.  

BUY rules
-During a general uptrend (TSX and equity under consideration both above 200-SMA) I buy the equity when the 5-EMA rises above the 13-EMA. 
-When a buy is imminent, I watch the charts during the day, and place a buy when the value crosses above the 13-EMA

SELL rule 
-I sell when the 5-EMA drops below the 13-EMA. 

I have other plays, but I haven’t used any of them this year. They tend to use more time and require more monitoring. I can manage what I’m currently doing in a few minutes each day, and perhaps another 15 minutes on the weekend. 

Gifts

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather continues to surprise with temperatures consistently above zero, and several days of rain. We hope things dry out before it turns cold again. We celebrated Christmas on Wednesday with Travis, Joanna, Eanok(our Korean student), Gemma & Jonas. Wendy prepared her usual feast of roast beast and all the trimmings—thank you! We also enjoyed chatting and following along with the celebrations in Saskatchewan. Wendy got a new puzzle, and has started work on those 1000 pieces! Thanks to my wife and children, I got a new laptop. At least it's new to me—it's a refurbished 2020 MacBook Air, replacing my 2013 MacBook Pro. The old machine just won't quit, but the keyboard has. 

abused keyboard!

I must drag my left hand too much as many keys on that end are worn through, but more seriously the H and P keys have decided that they won't work at all! So, I've managed by typing witin and letting autocorrect add the h, then I type hiccus and let autocorrect insert the p. Then, I copy the h and p into notepad and I can go and get them whenever they are needed! Not elegant, but it worked. Now, I will add a bluetooth keyboard to the old laptop and turn it into a desktop computer! I also received various other gifts, including golf balls, socks, a tree ornament, lighted gloves and a carpenter's pen.Wendy's big/little gift was Kali who is an exhausting little fur ball! Fortunately, Kali has been sleeping longer, and even through the night, so that is easing the exhaustion. The markets were only open for three days and the volumes were thin. We continue to operate under the chaos of President-elect Musk and his transition team. This week, he has begun a war between the MAGAs and the Tech Bros. Both factions agree that they want to prevent immigration, but in fact, the MAGAs mainly want to ensure that no brown people get in while the Tech Bros are happy to accept any colour as long as they're good software engineers! Grab your popcorn! Most of the sporting world is on specialized scheduling over the holidays so we focus on special events. The world junior hockey championship is on and we're cheering on team Canada. #7-Jayhawks won their game and improved their ranking. College football playoffs resume around New Year's next week. All three of my NHL teams played today and they all lost. 

Eric/A hosted the entire Team Bailey for Christmas in Prince Albert. That's Liam in red at the back, then Eric, Haaken, Mercedes, Kiersten, Greg across the scene and Erica in front. 

Erica writes, "We had a pretty wonderful week with Greg, Kiersten, Haaken and Liam all home. Then, as an added bonus, Mercedes was able to come up for a short visit. We went out to Elkhorn resort and hiked their groomed and some less-groomed trails. Then, we had a wonderful meal, care of my Mom and Dad (thank you so much!) We finished off the week celebrating our 31st anniversary."

Erin and Kristian had a quiet Christmas and Boxing Day with several Lego projects assembled, and the Harry Potter series attacked. 

Vegging out in Regina

We opened presents over at Travis and Joanna's on Christmas Eve. They did take some time off, and we were glad to have them join us for Christmas dinner. They brought Marigold along and we enjoyed watching the dogs play as well. Then, we closed the evening with a FastTrack tournament. Fun times! 

And that's a farewell for 2024. See you next year!