The Actual Art of the Deal

Ronald Reagan on trade: "Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag. The expansion of the international economy is not a foreign invasion; it is an American triumph, one we worked hard to achieve, and something central to our vision of a peaceful and prosperous world of freedom."

Everybody should read this accurate and enlightening piece...

“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don't know, I'm an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.

Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of "The Art of the Deal," a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you've read The Art of the Deal, or if you've followed Trump lately, you'll know, even if you didn't know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call "distributive bargaining."

Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you're fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump's world, the bargaining was for a building, or for construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.

The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don't have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.

The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can't demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren't binary. China's choices aren't (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don't buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.

One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you're going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don't have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won't agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you're going to have to find another cabinet maker.

There isn't another Canada.

So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.

Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM—HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.

Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that's just not how politics works, not over the long run.

For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here's another huge problem for us.

Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.

From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn't even bringing checkers to a chess match. He's bringing a quarter that he insists of flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”

— David Honig

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Moving Ahead

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has moved through a really cold phase under the Polar Vortex, and we have returned to near zero temperatures. Along with the warming trend, we're back into snowfall, so I am relieved to have my snowblower repaired and returned. It was in operation this morning and ran great! With the warmer weather, Kali has enjoyed getting out for walks and to play in the snow. She also had her vet-visit to update her vaccination program. Otherwise, my main extra activity this week is officiating at the Provincial Curling Championships. I've been assigned to operating the time clocks for the teams. You really have to be on the alert to get their clocks turned on and off at the appropriate times. Fortunately, as my father often reminded me—despite that I'm poor, I can afford to pay attention! Wendy keeps up with her choir work and singing, but we were both feeling a little under the weather with head colds part of the week, and decided not to spread that at the Silver Sound choir practice on Thursday. The extra rest seems to have been helpful. I was back to the doctor on Wednesday to follow-up on my infected toe issue. She is satisfied that things are progressing well, but advises that I increase my use of a compression stocking on that leg to aid circulation—she prescribed me a new set. Now, my next toe is infected. Wendy is medicating me, and we're looking to get back to the doctor early next week if it doesn't clear up over the weekend. The world is watching, waiting and reacting as the Orange Felon continues to spout his insane rants about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. Concurrently, he has cancelled nearly all foreign aid. We can expect that all those countries will now come under the funding, influence, and control of China—an unintended, and unfortunate consequence. The markets displayed concomitant volatility, but I managed a good week. The college football final went as I expected with Ohio State winning. In basketball, the #12-Jayhawks managed a tough road win early in the week and returned home for a battle with #7-Houston today—they lost in Double OverTime, sigh! Rock Chalk boys—they certainly should have won! The Oilers were short-handed this week as McDavid served a 3-game suspension, however, they managed two wins and kept their lofty standing in place—first place in their division. Penguins are struggling between being a wild card team or dropping down for a high draft pick! All my teams played to day: Only Oilers won, c'mon Leafs and Pens. 

Erica writes, "I took my neighbour to Saskatoon for an appointment. She doesn’t drive and it makes for a fun trip to the city. We discovered a really great liquidation store where she bought some clothing for her family and I picked up my favourite sweet and salty popcorn! We finished off at Costco before heading back. Her sons are a big help to us. One shovels the snow and the other does our house cleaning. Eric is continuing to heal from his eye treatment. Some days are good and other days his eyes are very tired. We are hoping at his next check up he can get refitted for prescription glasses. I’ve sent off my fee for surgery in Germany. I leave on the 11th. Surgery is on the 14th. If all goes well, I’ll be back home on the 25th. Oh and Eric organized my sock and underwear drawers!"

Yeah, that looks better!

Erin writes, "We had another cold snap, but since I got my car a new battery and battery maintainer, she wasn’t allowed to complain by not starting. So, she just went into limp mode instead. At least it happened at work so the guys gave me a Tiguan to drive for the night and we fixed the RAV4 up the next day." And Kristian wrote, "Same old, same old."

A fun Dog-Date

Travis and Joanna acclimated quickly to the frigid temperatures here and are back at their various work assignments. Fortunately, Travis was able to take some time off to bring Marigold for a visit. Kali was becoming stir-crazy with the old folks who live here! Andrew is doing great on his course and exams. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Thanks, Uncle Joe!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has been nice with above freezing temperatures mid-week, but now we're back into seasonable temperatures, and under threat of very frigid temperatures to start next week. They're predicting -30°. Our snowblower quit on Monday, but fortunately, we haven't had snow since. The repair guy found an electrical issue, and got it running again easily, but can't seem to keep it working. It made a ride home, but it wouldn't start here, so, it's back with him! Our choir practices started again this week on a new list of songs. Our Spring Concert is set for Mother's Day weekend. I have had another good week in the markets on the final week of the Biden administration. It usually takes up to six months to see the changes caused by the new administration, but if Trump follows through on his threats of rule by fiat, that may come more quickly. At this point, I simply say, "Thanks, Uncle Joe!" 
"Look what Biden did to America!" screams MAGA. 

According to the Department of Labor, the American economy added 256,000 new jobs in December, a number significantly higher than economists expected. That brings the total number of jobs created under Biden to 16.6 million and makes Biden’s the ONLY administration in history to have created jobs EVERY MONTH. Under the Biden administration, the nation has also had the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in fifty years, ending at 4.1%. The U.S. gained more jobs during Biden’s four years than it did under Donald Trump, Barack Obama, or George W. Bush. Under Biden administration, the U.S. economy has grown faster and created more jobs than any other country with an advanced economy. Working-age women are now employed at record levels, and the gap in employment between Black Americans and their white counterparts is at the lowest level on record. The administration has brought the inflation of the early recovery back down to target levels, while incomes have increased. 

"But what about the price of eggs?" whispers MAGA... 

The Masters of Curling was my big event this week. My guy, #15-Koe, opted out of this event, so I was cheering for #3-Dunstone, #5-McEwen, #6-Jacobs, but McEwen didn't make the playoffs. On the women's side, my gal, #6-Einarson, made the playoffs, but has lost out. It'll be #6-Jacobs vs #8-Whyte in the men's final, and #1-Homan vs #4-Hasselborg in the women's final. In hockey, my Oilers have continued to win and have moved into a tie for the division lead. The Leafs remain atop their division, while Pens have fallen well off the pace. As is often the case on Saturday nights, all three played—Leafs won. In basketball, my #9-Jayhawks dropped a game to #2-Iowa State early in the week, but returned home to defeat interstate rival Kansas State today. Rock Chalk! 

Erica writes, "We had an uneventful trip back from Swift Current. It was fortunate that we decided to drive down on Friday, as the highways were really bad on Saturday. The temperature had warmed up and there was a light rain overnight that turned to ice on the highway. Then, we got a big dump of snow on Thursday. Our friend, Guido, had to go rescue one of his buses and ended up stranded himself! So, the highways were pretty bad. Other than the weather it’s been a pretty ordinary week. Well, I guess for January the weather is pretty ordinary as well!" 

Erin writes, "It's been a busy week. I got December month end done and now I’m onto month 13 before I can start January. We’re letting my assistant go Monday morning. So, I’m taking on more work until we find a replacement. The timing is tough because it’s already extra busy with year end, but it needed to happen. Anyway, my plate is extra full, but we’ll get through it—I can do it! Haha. I have my computer home to work on year end stuff, but I’m taking advantage of quiet brain time right now. I’ll get at it later today. Football playoffs are this weekend, too, so I’ll work that in somehow. My new team this season is the Lions. I found myself cheering for them early on and now they’re headed to the Super Bowl 🤞 haha. Ulrich magic. Jags will always be #1 in my heart though. We’ll start again next season. And one of the guys installed my battery maintainer yesterday, so I can plug it in just like a block heater. I’ll make it to work Monday morning no matter what! Kristian and I had a movie and appetizer night last night. He’s still sleeping. The cats are hanging out with me😻!"

Good-bye for now, Punta Cana!

Travis and Joanna have enjoyed two weeks in Punta Cana and have begun the trip home. They're facing a 60° temperature shift, from +30 to -30! Yikes! We've been enjoying having Marigold with us. She and Kali are playing well, and vigorously, together. Andrew is home, so he has been taking care of things at the house as well as tending to Moxley and Darby. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Keep your grubby hands...

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The week began with cold weather, down to -20°, but has returned to single digits for the last half of the week. We still have no fresh snow, but they are promising(threatening) some beginning tomorrow. I was back to the doctor this week about my left foot, particularly my toes which are swollen. They opined that my DVTs are interfering to the point that I need to wear my compression stocking every day. I've done that these last three days, and the improvement is noticeable. I got my DVTs eight years ago, and have been managing them with blood thinners. I have only had to wear my compression stocking while we travel, or when I golf, but now, it appears, the situation requires it more. We'll see what my vascular surgeon thinks about it when I see her. Wendy keeps up with her usual choir and leadership team meetings and rehearsals, but her main activity these days is the DOGS! Kali and Marigold keep her going all day and part of the night! The markets have been troubled by good news and bad news! The main good news is the continuing strength of the USA economy. Again, this month they put up blowaway job gains with USA gaining 256K, and Canada doing even better, per capita, at 91K. This means we are not expecting the FED to cut the rates anytime soon.

The main bad news is the impending chaos of the Orange Felon taking office. He is continuing his threats against his neighbours while simultaneously allowing that he won't cut consumer costs, war in Ukraine won't end on his first day, etc! Voters should not expect to get what was promised! Thus, I'm barely in the green for the month so far. Investors remain on edge while we enjoy our final week of stable government down there. We are also in shaky governing times up here as Trudeau has announced a leadership campaign to replace him, and that will inevitably be followed by an election. "Interesting times" for sure! The big sporting event this week for me was the Astec Challenge—24 of the top men's teams in the world convened in Lloydminster SK. Several top teams did not advance to the playoffs including my guy, #15-Koe, along with #4-Jacobs and #5-Retornaz, so there will be some changes in the rankings. #6-McEwen faced #7-Dunstone in the final after they despatched #1-Mouat and #10-Edin in the semis—some great curling! The expert pundits aver that McEwen can't win anything with the Marsh twins—must be true because Dunstone slaughtered him in the final! In basketball, #11-Kansas (I warned you about the rankings changes) rolled off three impressive wins this week. The football playoffs continued and I really thought Texas was on a roll after taking out the Sun Devils last week, but as it turned out, Ohio State was just too tough, and ran away in the late going to move on to the championship game against Notre Dame. Finish it off Buckeyes! Oilers and Leafs are holding on near the top of their divisions, and Pens are in Wild Card position, so all my teams are doing okay. All three played tonight—Oilers won! 

Erica writes, "Liam was the last to leave us last Sunday. Then, we had the evening to get organized to be back at work for Monday. Our friends, Tina and Guido, became grandparents this week. That is the second couple in our small group. I’m not sure what is causing this but, so far Eric and I have managed to not catch it. We had plans to visit Manitou Springs this weekend, however, news of Edie’s passing caused us to pivot. We are down in Swift Current (aka Speedy Creek) for the weekend to remember Edie. Eric and I stayed with Edie many times on trips through or when Eric was itinerant preaching. She was always so hospitable!"

Edie Seibel 1933-2025

Erin and Kristian have worked through a phase of the annual deep freeze in Regina, and are now expecting a bit of a break in the weather, even above freezing by midweek. Unfortunately, that has come with icy roads and many accidents. In any case, things are going well for them, although Erin continues to suffer congestion from her month-long bout. Kristian now has a working VR headset, but has to sit down while using it because it's quite disorienting! Erin is not even sure she wants to try!

Travis and Joanna are in Punta Cana, enjoying the salubrious climes and tropical vistas. Meanwhile, we've been dealing with the dogs. Marigold is staying with us, while Moxley and Darby were at a kennel this week. Yesterday, Andrew came home for a session of courses and exams here in TBay. Today, we picked up the boys from the kennel and brought them home where Andrew will take care of them for the duration! Gemma and Jonas headed back to Vancouver and school this week. 

Punta Cana - 2025

And that's enough for this week. 

A New Year

I may have told you this before, but I find New Year to be an artificial construct. Had they established the Solstice as the beginning of a new year, I would have accepted that as meaningful, but there's nothing special about beginning another month and deciding it's the start of another year. However, like most days, we stayed up until after midnight and ushered in the New Year with Travis and Joanna, and the dogs! Thus, in this case, another year has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned cold with overnight lows even reaching down to -20°—brrrr! We have had no further snow, but I suppose it will return eventually. Other than New Year observances it has been a quiet week. Wendy performed my first haircut of the year—diminishing returns there! I have worked through the ElderFit program, and then through the SAFE program out of McGill. Now, I'm using the Get Fit Fast program. There are lots of options available through YouTube since I'm too cheap to actually pay for one!

Hey, I found the TP

Kali has provided some mischief as usual. She is a very active little rascal and gives us daily concerns about tripping over her. The markets ended the year with days of selling pressure, but we have started the new year with some green—keep 'er goin'! The MAGAs allowed the election of the speaker in the US House on Friday, but promptly issued a statement declaring that that was the end of their cooperation—sigh! Next week, we will see what the markets make of the new threats. The Leafs and Oilers are comfortably in playoff contention, while the Penguins are tied for the final wild card slot. The football playoffs continue with Texas advancing as expected over the Sun Devils in overtime. There are only four teams left, so it will be tough sledding from now on, but I really thought that Arizona State might be the toughest opponent left, so we'll see how they do against Ohio State next week. #7-Jayhawks lost their first conference game this week, so I'm expecting them to get dropped again in the rankings—Rock Chalk!

Mystery Train

Erica enjoyed a special feature this week as her girl band Mystery Train had an evening gig at Mr. Mikes. She reports that she enjoyed it a great deal, and they have feelers from other establishments for further engagements. Otherwise, they enjoyed the holidays with family around and are now sending the last of them on their way. 

Erin and Kristian are enduring a frosty Regina with temperatures dropping into the -30s. Her car battery refused to put up with that, and has now been replaced—under warranty, fortunately! 

Travis and Joanna are off to Punta Cana tomorrow, so they spent a pretty frantic week producing and delivering a lot of product for Bucket Decals and PuckShots. We pray for good and safe travel and for a restful time in the Dominican Republic. Gemma and Jonas are completing their holidays and will be heading out next week as well. 

And that's about enough for this week. 

Investing Report 2024

2024 Investing Results

Indices:
TSX     +18.0%
DOW   +12.9%
S&P     +23.3%
NAS     +28.6%

Personal: 22.4%
I operate a variety of strategies in my own accounts including some of the plays described below, as well as some BnH (Buy & Hold) of good dividend paying stocks. While this doesn’t offer the blow away possibilities that the index ETF play may produce, it is sufficient for my current needs.

3/8 Rising Tide: 19.0%
This play works on the “Rising Tide” theory using the 3/8 crossover on the weekly chart. 
Note: I have eliminated some sectors (GD, Miners, HC). 
Trading Plan: Plan your trade; trade your plan! 
1. TSX must be IN. 
2. Sector must be IN. Pick best 3 sectors. 
3. Stock must be IN. Pick up to  2 stocks per sector to a max of 5 holdings. 
4. Take a bias toward sectors and stocks that have recently crossed over. 
5. Buy when the 3 crosses over the 8. 
6. Sell when the 8 crosses over the 3. 
7. Also use a 6% TStop on advisory basis.

Index ETFs: 33.3%
Also assessed BnH of index ETFs: 38.6%
X: 34.8%
S: 40.9%
Q: 40.1%

This technical play operates on weekly charting of the 3 and 8 EMAs for each of the leveraged ETFs in question: HXU, HSU, HQU. 
-I buy when the 3EMA rises above the 8EMA on the weekly chart. I watch the charts during the day if it’s getting close and place a buy/sell near the end of the trading day. 
-I sell when the 8EMA moves above the 3EMA, and for additional safety, I watch them against a 6% TStop, but refuse to use a hard Trailing Stop. 
-I also watch the daily charting of the crossovers as an early indicator in reflection of these volatile times! 
-BnH has surpassed the trading strategy two of the three years I’ve been monitoring this, but the other year it lost 40.1%! This year the difference was between 33.3% and 38.6%. I’m willing to accommodate my ability to sleep at night for that potential 5.3% gap! 

5/13 Daily: 16.9%   I have decided to eliminate this play as it tended to gravitate to the same batch of equities as the 3/8 Rising Tide play. 
This technical play operates on daily charting of the 5 and 13 EMAs . The 200 SMA is also used as the criterion for a general uptrend. 
Leveraged ETFs are not considered for this play.  

BUY rules
-During a general uptrend (TSX and equity under consideration both above 200-SMA) I buy the equity when the 5-EMA rises above the 13-EMA. 
-When a buy is imminent, I watch the charts during the day, and place a buy when the value crosses above the 13-EMA

SELL rule 
-I sell when the 5-EMA drops below the 13-EMA. 

I have other plays, but I haven’t used any of them this year. They tend to use more time and require more monitoring. I can manage what I’m currently doing in a few minutes each day, and perhaps another 15 minutes on the weekend. 

Gifts

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather continues to surprise with temperatures consistently above zero, and several days of rain. We hope things dry out before it turns cold again. We celebrated Christmas on Wednesday with Travis, Joanna, Eanok(our Korean student), Gemma & Jonas. Wendy prepared her usual feast of roast beast and all the trimmings—thank you! We also enjoyed chatting and following along with the celebrations in Saskatchewan. Wendy got a new puzzle, and has started work on those 1000 pieces! Thanks to my wife and children, I got a new laptop. At least it's new to me—it's a refurbished 2020 MacBook Air, replacing my 2013 MacBook Pro. The old machine just won't quit, but the keyboard has. 

abused keyboard!

I must drag my left hand too much as many keys on that end are worn through, but more seriously the H and P keys have decided that they won't work at all! So, I've managed by typing witin and letting autocorrect add the h, then I type hiccus and let autocorrect insert the p. Then, I copy the h and p into notepad and I can go and get them whenever they are needed! Not elegant, but it worked. Now, I will add a bluetooth keyboard to the old laptop and turn it into a desktop computer! I also received various other gifts, including golf balls, socks, a tree ornament, lighted gloves and a carpenter's pen.Wendy's big/little gift was Kali who is an exhausting little fur ball! Fortunately, Kali has been sleeping longer, and even through the night, so that is easing the exhaustion. The markets were only open for three days and the volumes were thin. We continue to operate under the chaos of President-elect Musk and his transition team. This week, he has begun a war between the MAGAs and the Tech Bros. Both factions agree that they want to prevent immigration, but in fact, the MAGAs mainly want to ensure that no brown people get in while the Tech Bros are happy to accept any colour as long as they're good software engineers! Grab your popcorn! Most of the sporting world is on specialized scheduling over the holidays so we focus on special events. The world junior hockey championship is on and we're cheering on team Canada. #7-Jayhawks won their game and improved their ranking. College football playoffs resume around New Year's next week. All three of my NHL teams played today and they all lost. 

Eric/A hosted the entire Team Bailey for Christmas in Prince Albert. That's Liam in red at the back, then Eric, Haaken, Mercedes, Kiersten, Greg across the scene and Erica in front. 

Erica writes, "We had a pretty wonderful week with Greg, Kiersten, Haaken and Liam all home. Then, as an added bonus, Mercedes was able to come up for a short visit. We went out to Elkhorn resort and hiked their groomed and some less-groomed trails. Then, we had a wonderful meal, care of my Mom and Dad (thank you so much!) We finished off the week celebrating our 31st anniversary."

Erin and Kristian had a quiet Christmas and Boxing Day with several Lego projects assembled, and the Harry Potter series attacked. 

Vegging out in Regina

We opened presents over at Travis and Joanna's on Christmas Eve. They did take some time off, and we were glad to have them join us for Christmas dinner. They brought Marigold along and we enjoyed watching the dogs play as well. Then, we closed the evening with a FastTrack tournament. Fun times! 

And that's a farewell for 2024. See you next year! 

Arrivals

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We enjoyed above zero temperatures early in the week and the driveway melted and dried off. It has turned cold again this weekend, but we're promised above zero weather again next week. No new snow has arrived, so my snowblower has remained on the sidelines. It's the season of advent, but also of holidays and family coming home to celebrate. We have already enjoyed some Christmas parties with the various groups we are part of, and we look forward to more family times here this year. However, we will miss out on connections with our Saskatchewan family. The USA is already experiencing the beginning of the Musk/Trump chaos as they conspired to interfere in the feverish legislative activity to fund the government down there. We have plenty of sound and fury in government ourselves, but at least we don't have unelected billionaires trying to govern via text messaging! Combined with the FED rate setting program, there were an abundance of things to bother the markets, and we have now endured three weeks of difficult markets with only the Nasdaq in the green for the month. My guy, #27-Koe, not only made the curling playoffs in Swift Current, he went on to beat #4-Jacobs for the championship. As a result, his world ranking has improved to #15. My gal, #5-Einarson, did not make the playoffs which were won by #8-Schwaller from Switzerland. My hockey teams are thriving at present, although only Oilers won today. Football is into the playoffs with the favoured teams having an easy time of it today. #5-Horns beat #12-Clemson fairly easily, but it was closer than I expected. In basketball, #8-Jayhawks won this week, but play again tomorrow before the new rankings will be voted.

Gingerbread Village

Erica writes, "The season festivities continue. We have celebrated more with friends and coworkers. My office has been doing festive things every day this week including making gingerbread houses on Friday.  I was up in La Ronge for three days so I missed part of it, but we still had fun. Liam arrived on Thursday and as I type this we are in Saskatoon waiting for Haaken’s plane to land. Greg and Kiersten arrive on Sunday. It will be a very full house—how wonderful! Eric finished grading papers for his class and now he just needs to finish grading the final exam. He has next semester off, which will be a nice break. I got my stitches out this week. My right hand is feeling pretty good. It is noticeably more free of stiffness than my left hand."

Lego Projects

Erin has been sick most of the week and even missed several days of work. She's hoping to recover over the weekend. Kristian got his new lego kit, and, moments later, had it built and added to his collection. He also installed a Christmas tree on the cat tree. 

Christmas on the Cat Tree

Marigold visting Kali

Travis and Joanna remain very busy as they try to get as much product out before Christmas as possible. Still, Travis flew down to Ottawa to bring home his newest dog—a pretty little Pomeranian named Marigold. Joanna has had extra time at work trying to fill orders there as well. And Gemma & Jonas came home this week—busy times. 

Gemma meets Marigold

And that's enough for this week. 

Frozen

Blowing Snow!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The temperatures dropped into frigid values midweek, in the minus twenties, but, thankfully we recovered to melting temperatures this weekend, and Wendy was able to get out for a walk with Cali today. I had an infected toe last week, but a course of antibiotics and regular cleaning and dressing have it pretty nearly healed over. Wendy keeps busy with her music; I have had my final preparation for the Cantata scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, we have hunkered down with the little dog while winter moved in outdoors, and were thankful for a warm, comfortable place to live. We got a dump of fresh snow early in the week, but the snowblower was up to the assignment. Yesterday, we had a volunteer opportunity, packing Christmas shipments at the Children's Aid Society. The markets are running in troubled fashion as they try to weigh the strength of the economy against what the FED might do next week. Pundits assure us that the FED will cut 0.25%, but I'm taking a wait and see approach. The curling event this week is in Swift Current and enough international teams have declined the invitation to allow #27-Koe in—they're doing well so far. #4-Einarson has missed the playoffs on the women's side. In hockey, all of my teams are doing a bit better. Leafs and Oilers are solidly in playoff positions, and Pens are close. Bowl season has begun in football, but Longhorns' loss last week dropped them down to #5, so they will play Clemson in the first round. #10-Kansas was dropped further than I expected in the new rankings in basketball, but they responded with a strong win today. 

Eric writes, "It's been busy: Monday, Erica had band practice, Tuesday, she had a Women of Rotary meeting. Wednesday and Thursday, she was in Saskatoon and on Friday, we had another office Christmas party. Today, she and the neighbour have been shopping. I had meetings Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday, I supervised the final exam for my class. Today, I wrapped some gifts and rested as I have not been feeling well. Tomorrow, life gets busy again with church, the Rotary Christmas brunch followed by the PACMA Christmas party and a jam session. Busy! Fun, but busy!"

Kristian assures us that not much new is happening in Regina. He located a Lego set on line. He has made the purchase, and is awaiting the delivery. Erin is off to an office Christmas party this evening, but otherwise the week has been mundane. 

Travis and Joanna continue to recover from their illness, and to catch up on work. They have pumped out an amazing amount of product on the PuckShots side recently. Last evening, we enjoyed getting over for Pizza and Cards evening with the dogs. Cali and the boys had a busy time and all slept soundly afterwards. They have purchased another dog, Marigold, who should be delivered next week. 

Coming soon: Marigold

And that's enough for this week! 

Concerts!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. Winter continues to move in; this week we received a bit more snow, not really enough for the snowblower, but I wanted to give it a try anyway! Last night, we got more snow, but now it is above zero and has been raining all morning, so this became be quite a mess by the time the rain ended and I finally got at it. I'm pretty sure the snowblower did not like pumping out that slushy stuff! We had our Silver Sound concert on Sunday. Wendy is singing tenor in the top left of the choir, I am in the centre of the top right area. We enjoy this choir a great deal, and plan to rejoin in January aiming toward a Mothers' Day weekend concert. Wendy had another concert on Wednesday evening with the Sweet Adelines choir—you can see her in the third row, right side.

Sweet Adelines Xmas Concert

She has another set for next Monday, and I am continuing to practice for the Cantata which is scheduled for Dec 15th. The market indices set new records again this week as some of Trump's more egregious cabinet choices are being rejected by the Senate, so folks are encouraged. The big economic fears centre around his rhetoric on deportation, tariffs and deconstruction of the civil service. I continue with my "wait and see" approach. In the world of sports, the Grand Slam of Curling ended with both #1 teams prevailing. Homan is having another phenomenal season on the women's side, and that Mouat team from Scotland is just amazing as well. In the NHL, the Leafs have ascended to first place in their division, Oilers and Pens have moved into a playoff position, so we keep cheering and hoping. My #1-Jayhawks suffered their first loss of the basketball season, so they may get dropped when the new rankings are published. In football, #2-Texas played #5-Georgia in the conference championship game this afternoon and acquitted themselves well, but lost in overtime. I still expect them to be highly placed in the college football playoffs. I won't be surprised if they win it all, but they've got to open up their playbook in the scoring zone—cannot continue to settle for FGs. 

...and presents under the tree...

Erica writes, "I had carpal tunnel surgery on Wednesday. Now, I have to figure out how to do everything left-handed while my right hand heals. Thank goodness for voice to text applications. Eric taught his final class of the semester and now he’s busy marking papers. We are slowly getting the house ready for company as all three boys and one girl will be home for Christmas."

Erin and Kristian continue to wait and cope in Regina. The wintry blast has been severe in Saskatchewan so far this season, with very cold temperatures as well as several blizzards. This weekend the weather has turned nice, the sun is shining, and the snow is melting—vive la différence! Earlier in the week, she suffered RAV4 failure as the battery inexplicably died. At least it's eligible for replacement under warranty, but it is a reminder of how much these modern vehicles and their computers rely on a very well functioning battery! We had a similar failure with ours where it just suddenly would not do anything, not even shift into neutral for towing! Kristian is completing his drug trial, but has signed up for a continuation of the treatments, so he'll remain in the trial for some extended time. Still nothing on the employment front for him. 

Travis and Joanna continue to recover, albeit slowly. As a result, we haven't been seeing them as neither they nor we wish to have us participate in this virus. They do summon the energy to get the boys out for walks from time to time. They are also needing to reserve some energy for the photo shoots that continue to be booked. Get well, guys! Gemma continues with an adventurous and educational posting on Vancouver Island. 

And that's enough for this week. 

Winter!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned decidedly colder, as we remained below zero most days this week. We also have received our first skiff of snow—not enough to shovel, but enough to see it in the grass, so we are convinced of the changing season. We are in the final throes of preparation for our Silver Sound concert which is scheduled for tomorrow. I plan to post a YouTube link of the concert once it is ready. Wendy has two more concerts with her Sweet Adelines chorus, and I have joined another choir for a cantata: Touched by a Child, Touched by a King; that one is on YouTube as well. Then, we have tickets for a Steve Bell concert in the middle of December—busy, musical times. We love it! Kali continues to mature and cause mischief, keeping Wendy very busy. The markets have completed another excellent month, and I remain on quota for an excellent year—thanks Uncle Joe. We got a further taste of the chaos associated with the new guy as he posted threats of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products. That crashed USA markets for a day, but then, sensibly, folks recalled that he's not taking over for a couple of months, and that he seldom follows through on his threats. Mexico is the USA's biggest trading partner, and we're pretty high up on the list as well. 25% tariffs would be a tough pill for Americans to swallow on all those food stuffs and manufactured goods. The initial conclusion is that Trump likes tariffs because he can rake in that tax money in a targeted way while using carve outs to exempt his corporate friends and the other rich folk from having to pay it. In the world of sports, I managed to get out for my first curling practice, yesterday. That went okay, I didn't fall down, or experience any pain, and I had a team invite me to join them! Still no pain today, so I plan to keep at it. The curling event this week is the National in St Johns. My guy, #22-Koe is, as I feared, too far down to get an invitation, so my new favourite team is #8-McEwen who made the playoffs. My gal, #5-Einarson also made the playoffs, but both lost in the semi-finals. It will be #1-Mouat vs #5-Jacobs in the Men's final, and #1-Homan vs #6-Hasselborg in the Women's final. In basketball, my #1-Jayhawks continued their winning ways, moving to 7-0 on the season—Rock Chalk! College football is closing the regular season with conference championship games; #3-Longhorns prevailed today over their interstate rival #20-Aggies. My Sooners lost to LSU. In hockey, my teams are performing a bit better. Leafs have moved near the top of their division, Oilers are about in the middle of the pack and Pens are still vying for the #1 draft pick! 

Eric wrote,"We haven't erected the snow shed as it has been cold. The car enjoys when we go to work and it gets to sit in the underground parking. This week was the calm before the storm. On Friday, the local professional association (SK Branch of CACFT held its AGM in Saskatoon. I have stepped down from being president (staying available as VP to assist the new president). We stayed overnight as Erica had her regional Christmas party for work Saturday night. We used the opportunity to finish some Christmas shopping in Saskatoon." 
Erica added, "We spent some time Christmas shopping and managed to get clothes for both of us, but I guess the rest of the family is out of luck this year!"

Erin wrote, "Nothing really new in Regina. The weather has been pretty gross. The RAV is wonderful, but other drivers aren’t so great, so it takes way too long to get to work and then back home, stuck behind them. Long days, but we relax at the end. I'm thankful it’s American Thanksgiving as there’s extra football to help the relaxation inside at night 😊 Kristian’s still sleeping today, as he was up late doing chores. Machining classes don't start until August, so he’ll still need to find something to do until then. For one of our hangouts, he gave in and watched some F1 with me. I taught him to like Ferrari. Then, I gave in and watched some Cobra Kai with him. We’re pretty boring this week, but mostly keeping warm, at least. "

Happy 43rd Travis!

This was Trav's birthday week, although I told him that he's too young to celebrate for a full week! On Monday evening, we went out for Novemburger (local fundraiser for United Way) at Outlaws. The burgers were great—first time there for us. Wendy prepared a birthday cake for his actual birthday on Wednesday, but by then Trav had fallen ill, so they decided they shouldn't pass that along to us. They stopped by to pick up the cake & ice cream, and let us sing happy birthday to him. Joanna has joined Trav in the illness brigade, and they are still not feeling well. 

That's about enough for this week! 

Wizard Card

Facial hair so much lighter now.

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather continues its slow descent toward winter. Most nights see freezing temperatures and daytime highs struggle to reach double digits. There is still no snow here, but we did have a big dump (88mm, about 3.5") of rain on Tuesday. Otherwise, the days have been pleasant and we've been able to get out for walks with Kali. She is gradually building up her comfortable walking range; those 10cm legs take a lot of steps to get anywhere!

Happy Birthday, Rauni!

Wendy took Kali to visit Rauni for her 93rd birthday. She was delighted by the visit and to get acquainted with Kali. We both continue to be busy with music as we have choral presentations coming up in December. Yesterday, our routines were interrupted by a plumbing emergency. The shower control had failed. I discovered a replacement cartridge among my plumbing supplies, so the shut down was not lengthy. When I reported to Home Depot, they informed me that these cartridges were a free replacement, so I gathered that they have been seeing lots of such failures! The chaos of Trump is already being felt in the USA, despite that he won't take office until January 20th. He has been making wild picks for his various government officials—an accused rapist and sexual predator for Attorney General?! Fortunately, the Senate played the Wizard card and over-trumped that one, but dangerous candidates remain! The markets have been a bit wild, but remain buoyant and we continue to test record highs. This is producing another good month of gains—thanks, Uncle Joe. The world of sports is rolling out plenty of surprises, not as I expect and hope. The Oilers, Pens and Leafs which I follow in the NHL are performing well below expectations. The Grey Cup was won by Toronto in a pleasing upset of Winnipeg. At least Jayhawks keep winning, and retain their #1 ranking. Today, #3-Texas and my unranked Sooners played. Texas had an easy time of it against unranked Kentucky, while OU was up against perennial powerhouse #7-Alabama. Surprisingly, the Sooners put up a great fight and won that game—they are now qualified for a bowl game!

Erica writes, "The snow has arrived and our carport is still in its box, not doing its job of keeping the snow off our car! Our neighbour helped us out by shovelling our driveway and walk—good neighbours! Mystery Train (the girl band I’m in) played at a few care homes these past two weeks. Today, we played at a seniors' condo. There was a lot of dancing and singing along. At one point, we said we were going to do a more modern song—from the 1970s! Maybe not so modern after all. It has been fun and I’ve learned some more keyboard parts to play as well. Eric has brought up the Christmas Tree box and cleared a space, so I guess we will be putting that up this weekend. I got a call for carpal surgery on December 5 so this week included appointments with the surgeon and a pre-op with my doctor. The procedure is about 10 minutes and done with local anesthetic so nothing to worry about (mom!). No news from the rest of the clan."

Not much news out of Regina, except that the snow has arrived with a vengeance, and more is coming this weekend. No developments on Kristian's potential employment, but he did some fancy electrical work this week to repair an LED pot light downstairs, and he's thinking about taking more training. Erin is doing a bit of posting work from home this weekend, but unfortunately she's getting some help from Elly—LOL. 

Big help from Elly

Travis and Joanna are very (make that extremely) busy as the postal strike has them reconsidering shipping options. Some orders had already been sent, and now may need to be redone completely. We did have them stop by for soup one evening, but no time for games. They also came by today, but that was mainly to visit Kali! Travis and I also take some time to commiserate over our NHL teams as he also follows the Pens, Leafs and Oilers. 

And that's about it for this week. 

Trumpy

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has remained nice and we have enjoyed that.

On Neighbour's lawn!

Wendy and Kali get out regularly for constitutional walks on the lawns. However, Kali continues to experience some failures on her indoors programming! And her sleep pattern (getting up very early in the morning) is quite a problem. Wendy is finding it exhausting! Today, we went for her first long walk. Kali made it for the first 500m, but then wanted to be carried! Meanwhile, Trumpiness is already being felt south of the border as he makes his suggestions for cabinet level appointments. A few of them are raising eyebrows on both sides of the aisle. We shall have to wait and see whether the Republican senators remain true to their constitutional oath or if they give in to the MAGA threats. They have already been told that they will lose their jobs that they don’t knuckle under to Trump. I have to start focusing on what might happen next year, as there are only two months left of the Biden gravy train. Fortunately, the markets continued to post gains during the last Trump term, so that part may be okay. This week was a bit shaky as the combination of solid economic data and fear of the Trump chaos led the FED and investors to pull back their bets on further rate cuts and the soft landing. In fact, some are suggesting the Trump recession could begin in 2026, and some as early as next summer. In his first term, the markets continued to thrive, so, I'm still hoping. In the world of sports, the Grey Cup game goes tomorrow. The Riders are out, and I'm expecting the Bombers to beat Toronto. The Canadian Open of Curling ended on Sunday with Homan bringing home the gold for us, while Gushue was outcurled by the Scots as Mouat brushed up an easy win on the men's side. This week in curling there's the European Championships, so our event in Red Deer is lacking some lustre. #22-Koe, defending champion there, is trying to pick up some points to raise his ranking. So far this season, his refurbished team with a changing lineup has not been challenging for championships and is steadily dropping in the rankings. In the NHL, Oilers are playing a bit better; all three of my teams play today, and since two of them play each other some one has to win—Pens and Leafs won. In college football, #3-Texas had a rather tougher time winning than I was expecting. My unranked Sooners had the week off. In basketball, #1-KU Jayhawks rock chalked up another win today. 

Eric & Erica are musing about putting up their Shed-in-a-Box. I sent them some videos so that should clog up their browsers with a lot more videos and advertisements! They went shopping for some hooks to hang the guitars, but Eric bought a 6-string Uke (Guitar/Ukelele), so that was the end of work for today. Erica writes, "This week Eric and I have been talking about retirement and plans and investments, so we consulted our financial advisor, aka Dad! He gave us some advice… hopefully it’s sound. Eric is nesting in preparation for the kids coming home. He’s cleared out the dining room and hung up some of the guitars to give us more floor space. We are hoping to get the garage-in-a-box up, but it didn’t happen on Saturday. We are both on for worship team this Sunday. We had a quick chat with Haaken. He is progressing on his book. We suggested sticky notes to organize his thoughts and he says that has been helpful."

Erin had another productive week at work. It's looking like she has the new protocols pretty much nailed down—congratulations!

Yowsah! 

Kristian continues to wait for his employment call. I really thought when the folks at Franks began to inquire further, that his hiring was imminent. He got his haircut this week, and added some non-natural coloration—that's bound to help attract employers! 

Travis & Joanna remain very busy by design. Bucket Decals keeps perking, and PuckShots is ramping up. Still, they took time to host us for lovely supper and games night featuring stuffed pork chops and scalloped potatoes—delicious! Thank you very much! 

And that's about it for this week. 

Trumped!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has been very nice, although we've had a few showers and some windy days—that's Fall here.  We have caught up on things here and completed a number of appointments as we settle in to these familiar routines. 

New dog, or new cat?

Wendy is spending a lot of time with the new dog, Kali, who seems to be fitting in well. For a tiny dog, she surely is a busy creature! I had chiropractor and dentist appointments early in the week. We are both back into choir practices as we prepare for Christmas concerts in early December. We're also on the worship team this Sunday, so we've been rehearsing for that—we do enjoy singing. I continue to recover from my back injury, and I am finally getting close to 40%—about peak performance these years! I am back to exercising and planning my reentry into curling. I've taken down the screens from the windows and Wendy has cleaned those in preparation for winter storage. We love our new windows. Clearly, a lot of people believed Trump's lies about the situation in USA, and refused to vote for an incumbent administration, or maybe it was because she was a woman. As a result, we now face the daunting prospect of another Trump administration. Last time around, he actually lost 3 million jobs and raised unemployment to as high as 14%, all while adding 7 trillion to the USA national debt. Under Biden, the USA economy is currently the best among the top industrialized countries, unemployment is at 50 year lows, and inflation is down to about 2% although the national debt keeps climbing. The FED cut the lending rate again this week, and the markets continue to roar higher, making a new record high for the fiftieth time this year. So, another good week of gains for me, thanks Uncle Joe. Playoffs are highlighted in the sporting world. Riders lost to the Bombers in the Western final while Toronto beat Montreal in the East. The Grey Cup game is next Sunday in Vancouver. In college football, #5-Texas had an easy time of it over unranked Florida. My unranked Sooners played #24-Missouri and put up a good showing, losing in the final minute. Basketball is underway; I got to attend a KU win last week, and to watch their win last night. RCJH! In the NHL, my teams are not doing well in the early going, but at least the Leafs are winning over half of their games. C'mon Oilers, Penguins! Curling this week featured the Canadian Open. My guy, #19-Koe did not make the playoffs, and at #19, he is at risk of not even being allowed to play in these top level tournaments, since only the top 16 are in automatically. #1-Mouat will play #3-Gushue in the final. On the women's side, my gal, #4-Einarson made the playoffs, but has lost out. #1-Homan will play #2-Tirinzoni in that final. 

Erica writes, "This weekend I’m in Edmonton with 'the girls' and visiting with cousin, Margaret. We have plans to see the farmers market, the Rocky Mountain Food Festival and the Deadmonton Haunted House. Plus, we might do some shopping. Eric is busy fitting in hockey games with his card hockey league. I’m hoping we get the carport up soon. It’s getting cooler and snow is in the forecast."

Erin and Kristian are waiting to hear back on his job application—nothing yet. He has been emailing with Patti (support person with DHHS), and made more applications. Erin continues to gain comfort in her new job—she's about a week ahead of schedule on the current monthend reporting. They got some snow last week, which made for icy roads, but it has melted away, and all is dry again. Kristian is trying to get his mom into the Lego construction hobby, so he bought her a lovely project. 

Not your father's Lego!

I think he helped her!

Travis and Joanna remain very busy with Bucket Decals, and are getting more and more photoshoots scheduled for Puck Shots. We barely got to see them this week. Andrew was home from Toronto for a visit, but otherwise, their other boys (their dogs) are doing fine. 

And that's about enough for this week. 

Arriving home!

Another week as passed and we have completed our journey south and returned to the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. Our quick trip got us as far south as Stillwater OK where we enjoyed a visit with Jack Bayles and family—thanks! We celebrated his 88th birthday and enjoyed our time there.

Happy #88, Dr. Jack Bayles!

Then, we began the long trip north. I got to enjoy a Jayhawk game in Lawrence—thanks Marti! And, we prevailed upon the hosting of Aunt Helen again—thank you!

The Crew in Lawrence

On Wednesday evening, we enjoyed our first Pizza and Praise evening with our friends in Lawrence—it was tasty and we enjoyed the singing! Then, on Thursday morning, we packed up to continue the trip home. The temperatures ranged from +32° in Stillwater to -3° in Minneapolis—can we stand it?! We spent Thursday night in Minneapolis, and then journeyed northward through some significant snowfall. Fortunately, the snow petered out before we reached Duluth, and we have returned home to fall weather (9°), but no snow here in Thunder Bay. We were planning a more extensive trip, but that didn't work out this time. Maybe there will be a later time! We got home Friday evening, and enjoyed a good night's sleep until 11am—I thought I was tired! Wendy has set upon laundry catch up and preparation for another arrival. The markets were troubled all week by various news items. Strong economic data in the USA caused investors to fear there may be no more FED rate cuts. This drove equities down. Weak USA jobs data on Friday finally gave us some recovery, despite that it was probably caused by the twin hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Also, concerns over the election are playing into market sentiment. We hope this gets settled next week! I only achieved about half of my quota in October, so I need a good November! It's football playoffs this weekend. Toronto prevailed in the east and will meet Montreal in the eastern final. Riders beat BC in the west, and advanced to play Winnipeg in the western final. Go Riders, Go! Oilers, Pens and Leafs all won their games one night this week—I'd like to see more nights like that! Oilers have lost their top star, McDavid, to an injury. He'll be out a few weeks at least. Sooners easily won their game this week. #6-Texas had the week off. #3-Gushue dropped his final two games and failed to get a medal at the Pan Continental curling event. #1-Homan did us proud, going undefeated to bring home the gold on the women's side. The big cash spiel in Edmonton sees #20-Koe advancing to the playoffs in the Saville Grand Prix. The Dodgers blew out the Yankees in five games to win the World Series!

Erica writes, "Happy Halloween! Eric had the treatment on his left eye on Monday. He spent most of the week in a dark room, catching up on sleep. On Thursday, he was feeling well enough to teach his class. We had an uneventful Halloween—fewer than 20 trick or treaters."

Kristian has been trying to work with the DHHS folks in his job search, but has not heard back from them this week. Finally, after more enquiries from Frank's business, declaring their interest in him, he has completed his application there. Now, we wait to see how that all plays out. Good luck! 

Bucket Decals completed October with a new record for most orders ever: 227, breaking the old record of 222 from 2021. Congratulations! Joanna had to get a molar extracted this week. It was abscessed, and may have been contributing to her sinus issues. We hope she finds improvement once the surgery heals.

Kali has arrived!

They completed delivery of the Yorkshire Monster this afternoon. Wendy has named her, KaLita, or Kali for short, and short, she is! 

And that's about it for this week.