Keep your grubby hands...

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The week began with cold weather, down to -20°, but has returned to single digits for the last half of the week. We still have no fresh snow, but they are promising(threatening) some beginning tomorrow. I was back to the doctor this week about my left foot, particularly my toes which are swollen. They opined that my DVTs are interfering to the point that I need to wear my compression stocking every day. I've done that these last three days, and the improvement is noticeable. I got my DVTs eight years ago, and have been managing them with blood thinners. I have only had to wear my compression stocking while we travel, or when I golf, but now, it appears, the situation requires it more. We'll see what my vascular surgeon thinks about it when I see her. Wendy keeps up with her usual choir and leadership team meetings and rehearsals, but her main activity these days is the DOGS! Kali and Marigold keep her going all day and part of the night! The markets have been troubled by good news and bad news! The main good news is the continuing strength of the USA economy. Again, this month they put up blowaway job gains with USA gaining 256K, and Canada doing even better, per capita, at 91K. This means we are not expecting the FED to cut the rates anytime soon.

The main bad news is the impending chaos of the Orange Felon taking office. He is continuing his threats against his neighbours while simultaneously allowing that he won't cut consumer costs, war in Ukraine won't end on his first day, etc! Voters should not expect to get what was promised! Thus, I'm barely in the green for the month so far. Investors remain on edge while we enjoy our final week of stable government down there. We are also in shaky governing times up here as Trudeau has announced a leadership campaign to replace him, and that will inevitably be followed by an election. "Interesting times" for sure! The big sporting event this week for me was the Astec Challenge—24 of the top men's teams in the world convened in Lloydminster SK. Several top teams did not advance to the playoffs including my guy, #15-Koe, along with #4-Jacobs and #5-Retornaz, so there will be some changes in the rankings. #6-McEwen faced #7-Dunstone in the final after they despatched #1-Mouat and #10-Edin in the semis—some great curling! The expert pundits aver that McEwen can't win anything with the Marsh twins—must be true because Dunstone slaughtered him in the final! In basketball, #11-Kansas (I warned you about the rankings changes) rolled off three impressive wins this week. The football playoffs continued and I really thought Texas was on a roll after taking out the Sun Devils last week, but as it turned out, Ohio State was just too tough, and ran away in the late going to move on to the championship game against Notre Dame. Finish it off Buckeyes! Oilers and Leafs are holding on near the top of their divisions, and Pens are in Wild Card position, so all my teams are doing okay. All three played tonight—Oilers won! 

Erica writes, "Liam was the last to leave us last Sunday. Then, we had the evening to get organized to be back at work for Monday. Our friends, Tina and Guido, became grandparents this week. That is the second couple in our small group. I’m not sure what is causing this but, so far Eric and I have managed to not catch it. We had plans to visit Manitou Springs this weekend, however, news of Edie’s passing caused us to pivot. We are down in Swift Current (aka Speedy Creek) for the weekend to remember Edie. Eric and I stayed with Edie many times on trips through or when Eric was itinerant preaching. She was always so hospitable!"

Edie Seibel 1933-2025

Erin and Kristian have worked through a phase of the annual deep freeze in Regina, and are now expecting a bit of a break in the weather, even above freezing by midweek. Unfortunately, that has come with icy roads and many accidents. In any case, things are going well for them, although Erin continues to suffer congestion from her month-long bout. Kristian now has a working VR headset, but has to sit down while using it because it's quite disorienting! Erin is not even sure she wants to try!

Travis and Joanna are in Punta Cana, enjoying the salubrious climes and tropical vistas. Meanwhile, we've been dealing with the dogs. Marigold is staying with us, while Moxley and Darby were at a kennel this week. Yesterday, Andrew came home for a session of courses and exams here in TBay. Today, we picked up the boys from the kennel and brought them home where Andrew will take care of them for the duration! Gemma and Jonas headed back to Vancouver and school this week. 

Punta Cana - 2025

And that's enough for this week. 

A New Year

I may have told you this before, but I find New Year to be an artificial construct. Had they established the Solstice as the beginning of a new year, I would have accepted that as meaningful, but there's nothing special about beginning another month and deciding it's the start of another year. However, like most days, we stayed up until after midnight and ushered in the New Year with Travis and Joanna, and the dogs! Thus, in this case, another year has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather has turned cold with overnight lows even reaching down to -20°—brrrr! We have had no further snow, but I suppose it will return eventually. Other than New Year observances it has been a quiet week. Wendy performed my first haircut of the year—diminishing returns there! I have worked through the ElderFit program, and then through the SAFE program out of McGill. Now, I'm using the Get Fit Fast program. There are lots of options available through YouTube since I'm too cheap to actually pay for one!

Hey, I found the TP

Kali has provided some mischief as usual. She is a very active little rascal and gives us daily concerns about tripping over her. The markets ended the year with days of selling pressure, but we have started the new year with some green—keep 'er goin'! The MAGAs allowed the election of the speaker in the US House on Friday, but promptly issued a statement declaring that that was the end of their cooperation—sigh! Next week, we will see what the markets make of the new threats. The Leafs and Oilers are comfortably in playoff contention, while the Penguins are tied for the final wild card slot. The football playoffs continue with Texas advancing as expected over the Sun Devils in overtime. There are only four teams left, so it will be tough sledding from now on, but I really thought that Arizona State might be the toughest opponent left, so we'll see how they do against Ohio State next week. #7-Jayhawks lost their first conference game this week, so I'm expecting them to get dropped again in the rankings—Rock Chalk!

Mystery Train

Erica enjoyed a special feature this week as her girl band Mystery Train had an evening gig at Mr. Mikes. She reports that she enjoyed it a great deal, and they have feelers from other establishments for further engagements. Otherwise, they enjoyed the holidays with family around and are now sending the last of them on their way. 

Erin and Kristian are enduring a frosty Regina with temperatures dropping into the -30s. Her car battery refused to put up with that, and has now been replaced—under warranty, fortunately! 

Travis and Joanna are off to Punta Cana tomorrow, so they spent a pretty frantic week producing and delivering a lot of product for Bucket Decals and PuckShots. We pray for good and safe travel and for a restful time in the Dominican Republic. Gemma and Jonas are completing their holidays and will be heading out next week as well. 

And that's about enough for this week. 

Investing Report 2024

2024 Investing Results

Indices:
TSX     +18.0%
DOW   +12.9%
S&P     +23.3%
NAS     +28.6%

Personal: 22.4%
I operate a variety of strategies in my own accounts including some of the plays described below, as well as some BnH (Buy & Hold) of good dividend paying stocks. While this doesn’t offer the blow away possibilities that the index ETF play may produce, it is sufficient for my current needs.

3/8 Rising Tide: 19.0%
This play works on the “Rising Tide” theory using the 3/8 crossover on the weekly chart. 
Note: I have eliminated some sectors (GD, Miners, HC). 
Trading Plan: Plan your trade; trade your plan! 
1. TSX must be IN. 
2. Sector must be IN. Pick best 3 sectors. 
3. Stock must be IN. Pick up to  2 stocks per sector to a max of 5 holdings. 
4. Take a bias toward sectors and stocks that have recently crossed over. 
5. Buy when the 3 crosses over the 8. 
6. Sell when the 8 crosses over the 3. 
7. Also use a 6% TStop on advisory basis.

Index ETFs: 33.3%
Also assessed BnH of index ETFs: 38.6%
X: 34.8%
S: 40.9%
Q: 40.1%

This technical play operates on weekly charting of the 3 and 8 EMAs for each of the leveraged ETFs in question: HXU, HSU, HQU. 
-I buy when the 3EMA rises above the 8EMA on the weekly chart. I watch the charts during the day if it’s getting close and place a buy/sell near the end of the trading day. 
-I sell when the 8EMA moves above the 3EMA, and for additional safety, I watch them against a 6% TStop, but refuse to use a hard Trailing Stop. 
-I also watch the daily charting of the crossovers as an early indicator in reflection of these volatile times! 
-BnH has surpassed the trading strategy two of the three years I’ve been monitoring this, but the other year it lost 40.1%! This year the difference was between 33.3% and 38.6%. I’m willing to accommodate my ability to sleep at night for that potential 5.3% gap! 

5/13 Daily: 16.9%   I have decided to eliminate this play as it tended to gravitate to the same batch of equities as the 3/8 Rising Tide play. 
This technical play operates on daily charting of the 5 and 13 EMAs . The 200 SMA is also used as the criterion for a general uptrend. 
Leveraged ETFs are not considered for this play.  

BUY rules
-During a general uptrend (TSX and equity under consideration both above 200-SMA) I buy the equity when the 5-EMA rises above the 13-EMA. 
-When a buy is imminent, I watch the charts during the day, and place a buy when the value crosses above the 13-EMA

SELL rule 
-I sell when the 5-EMA drops below the 13-EMA. 

I have other plays, but I haven’t used any of them this year. They tend to use more time and require more monitoring. I can manage what I’m currently doing in a few minutes each day, and perhaps another 15 minutes on the weekend. 

Gifts

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The weather continues to surprise with temperatures consistently above zero, and several days of rain. We hope things dry out before it turns cold again. We celebrated Christmas on Wednesday with Travis, Joanna, Eanok(our Korean student), Gemma & Jonas. Wendy prepared her usual feast of roast beast and all the trimmings—thank you! We also enjoyed chatting and following along with the celebrations in Saskatchewan. Wendy got a new puzzle, and has started work on those 1000 pieces! Thanks to my wife and children, I got a new laptop. At least it's new to me—it's a refurbished 2020 MacBook Air, replacing my 2013 MacBook Pro. The old machine just won't quit, but the keyboard has. 

abused keyboard!

I must drag my left hand too much as many keys on that end are worn through, but more seriously the H and P keys have decided that they won't work at all! So, I've managed by typing witin and letting autocorrect add the h, then I type hiccus and let autocorrect insert the p. Then, I copy the h and p into notepad and I can go and get them whenever they are needed! Not elegant, but it worked. Now, I will add a bluetooth keyboard to the old laptop and turn it into a desktop computer! I also received various other gifts, including golf balls, socks, a tree ornament, lighted gloves and a carpenter's pen.Wendy's big/little gift was Kali who is an exhausting little fur ball! Fortunately, Kali has been sleeping longer, and even through the night, so that is easing the exhaustion. The markets were only open for three days and the volumes were thin. We continue to operate under the chaos of President-elect Musk and his transition team. This week, he has begun a war between the MAGAs and the Tech Bros. Both factions agree that they want to prevent immigration, but in fact, the MAGAs mainly want to ensure that no brown people get in while the Tech Bros are happy to accept any colour as long as they're good software engineers! Grab your popcorn! Most of the sporting world is on specialized scheduling over the holidays so we focus on special events. The world junior hockey championship is on and we're cheering on team Canada. #7-Jayhawks won their game and improved their ranking. College football playoffs resume around New Year's next week. All three of my NHL teams played today and they all lost. 

Eric/A hosted the entire Team Bailey for Christmas in Prince Albert. That's Liam in red at the back, then Eric, Haaken, Mercedes, Kiersten, Greg across the scene and Erica in front. 

Erica writes, "We had a pretty wonderful week with Greg, Kiersten, Haaken and Liam all home. Then, as an added bonus, Mercedes was able to come up for a short visit. We went out to Elkhorn resort and hiked their groomed and some less-groomed trails. Then, we had a wonderful meal, care of my Mom and Dad (thank you so much!) We finished off the week celebrating our 31st anniversary."

Erin and Kristian had a quiet Christmas and Boxing Day with several Lego projects assembled, and the Harry Potter series attacked. 

Vegging out in Regina

We opened presents over at Travis and Joanna's on Christmas Eve. They did take some time off, and we were glad to have them join us for Christmas dinner. They brought Marigold along and we enjoyed watching the dogs play as well. Then, we closed the evening with a FastTrack tournament. Fun times! 

And that's a farewell for 2024. See you next year! 

Arrivals

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. We enjoyed above zero temperatures early in the week and the driveway melted and dried off. It has turned cold again this weekend, but we're promised above zero weather again next week. No new snow has arrived, so my snowblower has remained on the sidelines. It's the season of advent, but also of holidays and family coming home to celebrate. We have already enjoyed some Christmas parties with the various groups we are part of, and we look forward to more family times here this year. However, we will miss out on connections with our Saskatchewan family. The USA is already experiencing the beginning of the Musk/Trump chaos as they conspired to interfere in the feverish legislative activity to fund the government down there. We have plenty of sound and fury in government ourselves, but at least we don't have unelected billionaires trying to govern via text messaging! Combined with the FED rate setting program, there were an abundance of things to bother the markets, and we have now endured three weeks of difficult markets with only the Nasdaq in the green for the month. My guy, #27-Koe, not only made the curling playoffs in Swift Current, he went on to beat #4-Jacobs for the championship. As a result, his world ranking has improved to #15. My gal, #5-Einarson, did not make the playoffs which were won by #8-Schwaller from Switzerland. My hockey teams are thriving at present, although only Oilers won today. Football is into the playoffs with the favoured teams having an easy time of it today. #5-Horns beat #12-Clemson fairly easily, but it was closer than I expected. In basketball, #8-Jayhawks won this week, but play again tomorrow before the new rankings will be voted.

Gingerbread Village

Erica writes, "The season festivities continue. We have celebrated more with friends and coworkers. My office has been doing festive things every day this week including making gingerbread houses on Friday.  I was up in La Ronge for three days so I missed part of it, but we still had fun. Liam arrived on Thursday and as I type this we are in Saskatoon waiting for Haaken’s plane to land. Greg and Kiersten arrive on Sunday. It will be a very full house—how wonderful! Eric finished grading papers for his class and now he just needs to finish grading the final exam. He has next semester off, which will be a nice break. I got my stitches out this week. My right hand is feeling pretty good. It is noticeably more free of stiffness than my left hand."

Lego Projects

Erin has been sick most of the week and even missed several days of work. She's hoping to recover over the weekend. Kristian got his new lego kit, and, moments later, had it built and added to his collection. He also installed a Christmas tree on the cat tree. 

Christmas on the Cat Tree

Marigold visting Kali

Travis and Joanna remain very busy as they try to get as much product out before Christmas as possible. Still, Travis flew down to Ottawa to bring home his newest dog—a pretty little Pomeranian named Marigold. Joanna has had extra time at work trying to fill orders there as well. And Gemma & Jonas came home this week—busy times. 

Gemma meets Marigold

And that's enough for this week. 

Frozen

Blowing Snow!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. The temperatures dropped into frigid values midweek, in the minus twenties, but, thankfully we recovered to melting temperatures this weekend, and Wendy was able to get out for a walk with Cali today. I had an infected toe last week, but a course of antibiotics and regular cleaning and dressing have it pretty nearly healed over. Wendy keeps busy with her music; I have had my final preparation for the Cantata scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, we have hunkered down with the little dog while winter moved in outdoors, and were thankful for a warm, comfortable place to live. We got a dump of fresh snow early in the week, but the snowblower was up to the assignment. Yesterday, we had a volunteer opportunity, packing Christmas shipments at the Children's Aid Society. The markets are running in troubled fashion as they try to weigh the strength of the economy against what the FED might do next week. Pundits assure us that the FED will cut 0.25%, but I'm taking a wait and see approach. The curling event this week is in Swift Current and enough international teams have declined the invitation to allow #27-Koe in—they're doing well so far. #4-Einarson has missed the playoffs on the women's side. In hockey, all of my teams are doing a bit better. Leafs and Oilers are solidly in playoff positions, and Pens are close. Bowl season has begun in football, but Longhorns' loss last week dropped them down to #5, so they will play Clemson in the first round. #10-Kansas was dropped further than I expected in the new rankings in basketball, but they responded with a strong win today. 

Eric writes, "It's been busy: Monday, Erica had band practice, Tuesday, she had a Women of Rotary meeting. Wednesday and Thursday, she was in Saskatoon and on Friday, we had another office Christmas party. Today, she and the neighbour have been shopping. I had meetings Monday and Tuesday. On Thursday, I supervised the final exam for my class. Today, I wrapped some gifts and rested as I have not been feeling well. Tomorrow, life gets busy again with church, the Rotary Christmas brunch followed by the PACMA Christmas party and a jam session. Busy! Fun, but busy!"

Kristian assures us that not much new is happening in Regina. He located a Lego set on line. He has made the purchase, and is awaiting the delivery. Erin is off to an office Christmas party this evening, but otherwise the week has been mundane. 

Travis and Joanna continue to recover from their illness, and to catch up on work. They have pumped out an amazing amount of product on the PuckShots side recently. Last evening, we enjoyed getting over for Pizza and Cards evening with the dogs. Cali and the boys had a busy time and all slept soundly afterwards. They have purchased another dog, Marigold, who should be delivered next week. 

Coming soon: Marigold

And that's enough for this week! 

Concerts!

Another week has passed on the shore of Lake Superior in my hometown. Winter continues to move in; this week we received a bit more snow, not really enough for the snowblower, but I wanted to give it a try anyway! Last night, we got more snow, but now it is above zero and has been raining all morning, so this became be quite a mess by the time the rain ended and I finally got at it. I'm pretty sure the snowblower did not like pumping out that slushy stuff! We had our Silver Sound concert on Sunday. Wendy is singing tenor in the top left of the choir, I am in the centre of the top right area. We enjoy this choir a great deal, and plan to rejoin in January aiming toward a Mothers' Day weekend concert. Wendy had another concert on Wednesday evening with the Sweet Adelines choir—you can see her in the third row, right side.

Sweet Adelines Xmas Concert

She has another set for next Monday, and I am continuing to practice for the Cantata which is scheduled for Dec 15th. The market indices set new records again this week as some of Trump's more egregious cabinet choices are being rejected by the Senate, so folks are encouraged. The big economic fears centre around his rhetoric on deportation, tariffs and deconstruction of the civil service. I continue with my "wait and see" approach. In the world of sports, the Grand Slam of Curling ended with both #1 teams prevailing. Homan is having another phenomenal season on the women's side, and that Mouat team from Scotland is just amazing as well. In the NHL, the Leafs have ascended to first place in their division, Oilers and Pens have moved into a playoff position, so we keep cheering and hoping. My #1-Jayhawks suffered their first loss of the basketball season, so they may get dropped when the new rankings are published. In football, #2-Texas played #5-Georgia in the conference championship game this afternoon and acquitted themselves well, but lost in overtime. I still expect them to be highly placed in the college football playoffs. I won't be surprised if they win it all, but they've got to open up their playbook in the scoring zone—cannot continue to settle for FGs. 

...and presents under the tree...

Erica writes, "I had carpal tunnel surgery on Wednesday. Now, I have to figure out how to do everything left-handed while my right hand heals. Thank goodness for voice to text applications. Eric taught his final class of the semester and now he’s busy marking papers. We are slowly getting the house ready for company as all three boys and one girl will be home for Christmas."

Erin and Kristian continue to wait and cope in Regina. The wintry blast has been severe in Saskatchewan so far this season, with very cold temperatures as well as several blizzards. This weekend the weather has turned nice, the sun is shining, and the snow is melting—vive la différence! Earlier in the week, she suffered RAV4 failure as the battery inexplicably died. At least it's eligible for replacement under warranty, but it is a reminder of how much these modern vehicles and their computers rely on a very well functioning battery! We had a similar failure with ours where it just suddenly would not do anything, not even shift into neutral for towing! Kristian is completing his drug trial, but has signed up for a continuation of the treatments, so he'll remain in the trial for some extended time. Still nothing on the employment front for him. 

Travis and Joanna continue to recover, albeit slowly. As a result, we haven't been seeing them as neither they nor we wish to have us participate in this virus. They do summon the energy to get the boys out for walks from time to time. They are also needing to reserve some energy for the photo shoots that continue to be booked. Get well, guys! Gemma continues with an adventurous and educational posting on Vancouver Island. 

And that's enough for this week.